US Dollar Index

The U.S. dollar came under pressure on Monday, with the dollar index hovering around 103.95, struggling to find support after a sharp drop last week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's latest comments on Friday reassured the market that the central bank does not have an urgent need to adjust its policy at the moment, despite growing economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq faced significant market losses, falling 3.3%, as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of key U.S. inflation data. The dollar index has been under pressure for the fifth consecutive day. The downward trajectory of the index dragged it to its lowest level since early November, around the 103.56 area, validating the recent break below the very important 200-day simple moving average during the Asian session. In addition to this, concerns that U.S. President Trump's trade policies may slow U.S. economic activity have also exerted some downward pressure on the dollar. The dollar index fell 3.5% last week, marking its worst single-week performance since November 2022, having fallen to 103.56, the lowest since early November. The US Dollar Index is currently struggling to regain the upper 104.00 level, having fallen more than 3.5% since last Monday, marking a historic depreciation.

The US Dollar Index is caught in a deep sell-off, having fallen below the key psychological support of 104.00 and once again hit the lowest level since November 2024 at 103.56. The 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages have now confirmed a bearish "death cross" pattern, reinforcing the negative momentum. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, indicates oversold conditions (latest around 26), indicating a potential short-term rebound, but the MACD remains firmly in bearish territory, indicating continued downside risks. If the US dollar index fails to reclaim 104.00, the next key support level will be at 103.56 (last week's low), which may further extend the sell-off to 103.34-103.38 (near the "double bottom" in November last year, and the next key level of attention is 103.00 (market psychological level, which may mark the continuation of the current sell-off until the 102.52 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of 100.16 to 110.18) level to find support. On the upside, you can focus on 103.99 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 100.16 to 110.18), and 104. Then the 104.40 (last Thursday's high) level.

Today, consider shorting the US dollar index near 103.99, stop loss: 104.10, target: 103.60, 103.50

WTI spot crude oil

Oil prices fell on Monday (March 10) as the market worried that the US tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China would hit the global economy and weaken energy demand, while OPEC+ production increases further pressured oil prices. WTI crude oil prices rose in early trading in the European session on Monday. WTI prices remained on the defensive near three-year lows as traders worried about the impact of tariffs between the United States, Canada and China and OPEC+'s plans to increase production. However, the Trump administration's tariff uncertainty continues to undermine crude oil prices. WTI crude oil once fell to around $65.00, a three-year low. On the other hand, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, further pressuring oil prices. Secondly, OPEC+ decided to increase production for the first time since 2022, This in turn pulls crude oil prices lower. The downside risk on demand may be greater than the risk on the supply side, as OPEC will increase additional oil supply.

WTI crude oil has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, the longest decline since November 2023. From the technical indicators of the daily chart, WTI crude oil continued its previous decline at the beginning of this week, while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) indicator is close to the oversold range, and the MACD shows that the short-term momentum has weakened, but there is still a lack of reversal signals before the golden cross is formed. , but it may receive buying support near last week's low of $65.00, and the market may usher in a short-term rebound. The rebound of oil prices from the 2024 low will allow traders to look at $67.50 (the low of December 10 last year) and $67.77 (9-day moving average) as the next upper target. If the price breaks through this point, the next upper position will look at $68.89 (14-day moving average). As for the downside, the key lower support level is still at last week's low of $65.00; 2024 low of $64.75; and April 2023 low of $64.31. If the market selling pressure re-emerges, $62.34 (November 2021 low) may become the next support area.

Today, consider going long on crude oil around 65.50, stop loss: 65.30; target: 66.50; 66.70

Spot gold

As the week started, gold prices retreated, falling 0.70% and fell below $2,900 as investors' concerns about a US recession intensified, especially under the controversial trade policies implemented by US President Donald Trump. The highest intraday hit $2,918. Gold prices approached the level below $2,900 amid selling pressure on Monday. Gold prices attracted some buyers in the early Asian session on Monday, with prices approaching $2,915. Global uncertainty provided some support for gold prices. Last Thursday, US President Trump signed an executive order exempting goods from Canada and Mexico under the North American Trade Agreement (USMCA), just two days after he implemented the tariffs. However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday night that the 25% steel and aluminum import tariffs scheduled to take effect on Wednesday are unlikely to be delayed. The uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff policy may drive safe-haven inflows, which is bullish for gold prices in the short term.

Despite a slight pullback due to the technical rebound of the US dollar last weekend, the daily chart just showed that gold prices still stood above the 30-day moving average of $2,882, and the technical side showed a medium-term upward pattern. At this stage, gold prices remain sideways and have failed to break through the recent "double top" of $2,930 (February 26 and March 5 highs). Although it has risen by more than 1.72% this month. But the relative strength index (RSI) still suggests the possibility of further gains. Therefore, the next resistance level for spot gold prices will be $2,930, followed by the record high of $2,956. A break above the latter would expose the $3,000 barrier. Conversely, a break below $2,900 would expose the 30-day moving average at $2,882, followed by last week's swing low at around $2,856.

Consider going long on gold today before 2,885.00, Stop Loss: 2,880.00; Target: 2,905.00; 2.910.00

AUD/USD

AUD/USD fell 0.40% on Monday as risk aversion weighed on the pair. Concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy initially supported the AUD, but weak Chinese inflation data and trade tensions pushed the pair lower. President Trump's comments about a "transition period" added uncertainty to the U.S. outlook, while an unexpected drop in China's consumer price index (CPI) pointed to weakening demand, further increasing downside risks for AUD/USD. AUD/USD's upside could be limited as investors' risk appetite is suppressed by rising global trade tensions. The Australian dollar was supported by the release of higher-than-expected GDP growth and trade data last week. On the monetary policy front, the latest Reserve Bank of Australia minutes showed a cautious stance on further rate cuts, making it clear that the February rate cut does not mean a commitment to continued easing.

On Monday, AUD/USD traded close to below 0.6300, with technical analysis on the daily chart showing that the pair briefly traded above 0.6300 (a psychological level) and the 9-day moving average (0.6278), suggesting weakening short-term momentum. In addition, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains below 50, reinforcing the bearish outlook. On the upside, the first resistance level is seen at the 100-day moving average of 0.6362, followed by 0.6400 (a round number), and the three-month high of 0.6409 set on February 21. Immediate support for AUD/USD is seen at the 9-day moving average (0.6274). A break below this key level could trigger further declines, potentially retesting 0.6234 (last Wednesday's low). A breakout would target the 0.6200 round number mark, as well as last week’s low of 0.6187.

Today, consider going long on the Australian dollar before 0.6264, stop loss: 0.6250; target: 0.6310; 0.6320.

GBP/USD

Against the backdrop of a small rebound in the US dollar, selling pressure is now gathering pace around the British pound, pushing GBP/USD to a three-day low around 1.2860. GBP/USD rose as close to 1.2946 against the US dollar during Monday’s European session. GBP/USD strengthened as the dollar struggled to find support amid growing concerns about the US economic outlook. Moreover, the bearish sentiment around the dollar supports the continuation of momentum after last week’s breakout above the 200-yuan simple moving average of 1.2788. In fact, the US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, is now close to its lowest level since early November, following a reaction to weak US monthly employment data released on Friday. This has heightened market concerns about the impact of US President Trump's policies on US economic activity and suggests that the Federal Reserve is still planning multiple rate cuts this year. The market currently expects about three 25 basis point rate cuts this year, which continues to weigh on the US dollar and support the GBP/USD pair. On the other hand, the British pound is supported by expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates slower than other central banks, including the Federal Reserve. This has become another factor supporting the GBP/USD pair and confirms the positive outlook.

The British pound gathered strength last week, breaking through 1.2900 (round mark), and 1.2924 (61.8% Fibonacci rebound from the high of 1.3434 in late September last year to the low of 1.2099 in mid-January) to a six-month high of 1.2945. The long-term outlook for GBP/USD has turned bullish as it remains above the 200-day moving average, around 1.2788. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, has returned to around 67.00, but indicates that it is still in bullish momentum. Therefore, further gains are foreseeable. The next key resistance levels will be 1.2950 and 1.3000 (market psychological barriers). If GBP/USD falls below 1.2900, it may test 1.2872 (5-day moving average), as well as the cycle high of 1.2811 in December 2024.

Today, it is recommended to go long GBP before 1.2865, stop loss: 1.2850, target: 1.2920, 1.2930

USD/JPY

At the beginning of the new week, the yen exchange rate attracted new buyers and recovered to its highest level since October last year at 146.60 last Friday against the generally weaker US dollar. Data released during the Asian session on Monday showed that Japan's basic wages soared to a 32-year high in January, while real cash income fell by 1.8% due to persistent inflation. Supporting the case for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which in turn is seen as supporting the yen. At the same time, hawkish expectations of the Bank of Japan continue to push Japanese government bond yields higher. The narrowing interest rate differential between Japan and other countries has become another factor driving flows to the low-yielding yen. On the other hand, USD/JPY has steadily declined from 157 to around 147 year-to-date, as the narrowing yield differential between the United States and Japan and the volatility of the global investment environment generally favor the yen, which remains the second best G10 performer against the dollar this year, second only to the Swedish krona.

From a technical perspective, a sustained break below the 147.00 mark and confirmation will be seen as a new trigger for USD/JPY shorts and set the stage for the continuation of the two-month downtrend. Nevertheless, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator on the daily chart is about to break through the oversold area (latest at around 30). Therefore, it would be wise to wait for a short-term consolidation or a modest rebound before further depreciation. Nevertheless, USD/JPY seems to be at risk of further decline to the intermediate support level of 146.50 and test the 146.00 round mark. Some follow-up selling should pave the way for a decline to the 145.25-145.20 area, and then approach the support level related to the psychological mark of 145.00. On the other hand, attempts to rebound may face strong resistance at the 148.00 mark. Any further gains may be seen as selling opportunities and limited in the 148.65-148.70 area. However, a sustained strong breakout above the latter may trigger a short-term covering rally and push the pair to the 149.00 mark, close to the 149.80-149.85 area, and thus to the supply zone of the 150.00 psychological mark.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 147.30, stop loss: 147.50; target: 146.50, 146.30

EUR/USD

On Monday, EUR/USD failed to extend its upward trend and faced some mild pressure, remaining below the 1.0900 area. With no data releases in the coming days, the market's attention will be focused on the Economic and Financial Council meeting and the speeches of Lagarde, Nagel and Lane of the ECB. After a week of high volatility, EUR/USD has stabilized in the 1.08-1.09 range, marking the biggest gain since 2009 due to the regime shift in fiscal policy in the eurozone. The rise of the currency pair was mainly driven by concerns about a potential slowdown in the US economy. Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said late on Sunday that growing uncertainty among businesses could dampen demand in the US economy, but does not mean that a change in interest rates is needed. Weaker-than-expected labor market data could put pressure on the US dollar, providing support for the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday that the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports imposed by President Trump in February will take effect on Wednesday and are not expected to be delayed, which could dampen market sentiment, support the US dollar and potentially limit the upside of EUR/USD.

EUR/USD moved higher last week, breaking above 1.0800 to reach 1.0888, the strongest level since November 2024, and as bullish momentum continues to build, buyers are firmly in control, pushing the pair into new territory, with price action now reflecting strong upside momentum. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is in overbought territory (latest around 71.55) and rising sharply, indicating strong buying pressure, but also hinting that the rally may soon face weakness. Meanwhile, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is showing a rising green bar, further reinforcing the current bullish outlook. A notable development is the impending bullish "golden cross" between the 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages, which, if confirmed, will further support buyers. On the technical side, resistance now lies in the 1.0900 mark area, a break above which could open the door for further gains, targeting 1.0950, as well as 1.0300 (a psychological mark in the market). On the downside, the immediate support is around the 1.0800 mark, followed by 1.0775 (last Friday's low), and the 200-day simple moving average of 1.0721.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.0820, stop loss: 1.0810, target: 1.0860, 1.0870.

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