Dollar Index

Last week, the dollar continued to be under pressure from weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls and comments from Trump and Powell. The dollar index continued to fall sharply before the end of last week and hit a near four-month low of 103.56. It is heading for its worst weekly performance in more than a year, as traders accelerated their selling ahead of the release of the February jobs report. The dollar is currently in free fall, with market expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing economic uncertainty driving capital outflows. Meanwhile, tariff-related volatility persists, with U.S. President Trump keeping markets nervous by hinting at new trade measures against Canada but refusing to commit to a specific timetable. The dollar index is currently under pressure from expectations of more aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve amid concerns about U.S. economic growth. The index is struggling below the 104.00 mark, having lost more than 3.5% since Monday, marking a historic depreciation. Safe-haven funds are flowing to the yen and Swiss franc. The market currently expects the "exceptionalism" advantage of the U.S. economy to be weakening, and the dollar is losing appeal in an environment of uncertainty.

Last week, the US dollar index experienced its biggest weekly drop (-3.58%) since November 2022 to a low of 103.56. At this stage, the US dollar index is still under pressure and has fallen below the key support level of 104.00. The 5-day (104.89) and 200-day (105.03) simple moving averages have formed a "death cross" bearish pattern, reinforcing the negative momentum. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) technical indicators on the daily chart continue to be bearish, suggesting further downside risks. If the US Dollar Index fails to find support around 103.34-103.38 (last November's "double bottom"), the next key level to watch is 103.00 (market psychological level, which may mark the continuation of the current sell-off until 102.52 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of 100.16 to 110.18) level finds support. On the other hand, 105.00 (round number level), and 105.03 (200-day simple moving average) look like a good first resistance level. Once the bulls overcome 105.00-105.03, the next level will be 105.70 (the central axis of the daily chart's downward channel), and 106.00 (psychological barrier level). Further to 106.35 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level).

Today, consider shorting the US Dollar Index around 103.95, stop loss: 104.10, Target: 103.50, 103.40

WTI Spot Crude Oil

WTI prices remain defensive near three-year lows as traders worry about the impact of tariffs between the United States, Canada and China and OPEC+'s plans to increase production. U.S. President Trump issued an executive order last week to exempt Canadian and Mexican goods under the North American Trade Agreement (USMCA) for one month, exempting them from the 25% tariffs he imposed earlier this week. However, the uncertainty of tariffs under the Trump administration continues to undermine crude oil prices. WTI crude oil once fell to around $65.00, a three-year low. WTI prices are now in a passive defensive position. However, the uncertainty of tariffs under the Trump administration continues to weaken WTI prices. On the other hand, According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report, US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, further pressuring oil prices. In the week ending February 28, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.614 million barrels, while they decreased by 2.332 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus expected inventories to decrease by 290,000 barrels. OPEC+ decided to increase production for the first time since 2022. This in turn pulled crude oil prices lower. The downside risks to demand may be greater than the risks on the supply side, as OPEC will increase additional oil supply.

Due to technical Oil prices plunged below the key $70.00 level to the 65.00 mark, a near three-year low, as technical conditions attempt to stabilize from oversold territory. They may take a breather in later trading sessions. However, the recovery momentum remains fragile, with unfavorable supply and demand dynamics weighing on bullish sentiment. From a technical perspective, the 5-week moving average (69.67) crossed below the 20-week moving average (70.84) on the weekly chart last week to form a bearish "death cross" pattern. Key downside support remains at last week's low of $65.00; the 2024 low of $64.75; and the April 2023 low of $64.31. If selling pressure re-emerges in the market, $62.34 (November 2021 low) could serve as the next support area. Conversely, a rebound from the 2024 low would allow traders to look toward $67.50 (December 10 low) as the next upside target. If the price breaks this point, the next upward position is $69.55 (5-week moving average), and a test above $70.00 (market psychological barrier) may lead to a larger rebound in prices.

Today, consider going long on crude oil around 66.60, stop loss: 66.40; target: 67.90; 68.20

Spot gold

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the February non-farm payrolls report, showing that the economy added more workers than in January, which was less than expected. While gold prices fluctuated last week, showing a slight negative bias before the weekend, it rose about 2.0% for the week. Despite the lack of follow-up selling, it is still confined to trading and consolidating in the 2,880-2.930 range for many days. Uncertainty in financial markets has intensified due to the controversial trade policies proposed by US President Donald Trump. Tariffs imposed on US allies and adversaries have triggered retaliation from Canada and China. Meanwhile, Mexico received a one-month tariff delay until April 2 after Trump discussed improving fentanyl and illegal immigration issues with Mexican President Claudio Nicchiembaum. Ongoing concerns and risk aversion over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies last week are likely to continue to provide support for safe-haven gold prices. This in turn requires bearish traders to remain cautious and wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any further losses.

From a technical perspective, gold prices have shown resilience around the $2,900 round-figure mark, although the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is still showing positive signals (latest at 57.50), which requires caution for bearish traders. However, acceptance below this mark could drag XAU/USD to $2,900 (round number mark), then the 30-day simple moving average horizontal area of ​​$2,877.20 and find some support around $2,862.90 (34-day simple moving average). The downward trajectory could extend further to last week's swing low, around the $2,856 mark. On the other hand, $2,930 (last week's high) now seems to have become an immediate resistance level, and a break above this area could see gold prices retest the all-time high reached in February, around $2,956.30. If some follow-up buying occurs, it will be seen as a new trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for the resumption of the recently established uptrend seen in the past three months or so to the market-recognized target of $3,000 level.

Consider going long on gold before 2,903.00 today, stop loss: 2,900.00; target: 2,922.00; 2.925.00

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar extended its losses against the U.S. dollar on Friday following the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. AUD/USD struggled to recover amid deteriorating risk sentiment, with traders reacting to lower-than-expected job growth and modest wage growth. Meanwhile, China's trade balance data showed an unexpected decline in imports, further fueling concerns about slowing demand, which put additional pressure on the Australian dollar. After three consecutive days of gains against the U.S. dollar early last week, AUD/USD faced selling pressure in the second half of the week as risk sentiment weakened and the U.S. dollar stabilized. Despite stronger-than-expected GDP data from Australia, concerns about trade policy changes and global economic uncertainty weighed on the Australian dollar, causing the pair to pull back. The Australian dollar remained subdued against the U.S. dollar heading into the weekend. AUD/USD was flat following the release of China's trade balance data. Traders remain focused on global trade dynamics, while geopolitical tensions remain a downside risk. Given that China is Australia's largest trading partner, this development could put pressure on the Australian dollar.

From the recent technical trend, AUD/USD rebounded sharply from the low of 0.6187 at the beginning of last week to the all-week high of 0.6365, but it was the worst performing currency among the G7 exchange rates. Although the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart technical indicator remained above 50, the selling pressure increased and the trend adjusted downward, indicating a bearish bias. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator continued to show a gradual decrease in red histogram bars, indicating continued bearish pressure. Further supporting the bearish outlook. On the downside, the first support level appears at 0.6260 (55-day moving average), followed by 0.6234 (last Wednesday's low). A break will look to the integer level of 0.6200 and the 0.6187 level of last week's low. On the other hand, buyers may try to stabilize the currency pair at this stage. Above 0.6300 (psychological level), further rebound could push AUD/USD towards 0.6364 (last week's high), and 0.6365 (100-day moving average) areas. Breaking above this level requires any meaningful rebound towards 0.6400 level and 0.6409 (February 21 high) levels.

Consider going long AUD before 0.6296 today, stop loss: 0.6280; target: 0.6360; 0.6370.

GBP/USD

The British pound rose sharply against the US dollar last week, despite the latest US jobs report showing that the economy remains solid. However, fears of a US recession have kept the US dollar weak, and GBP/USD rose as the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, higher than the 4% expected. The data did not indicate that the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting. However, the economic outlook has not improved due to the controversial policies of US President Donald Trump, which makes businesses feel uncertain when planning for the future. The March non-farm payrolls are expected to be worse as Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) laid off federal government workers on probation. Investors appear to be pricing in a slowing job market, which could pressure the Fed to lower borrowing costs to fulfill its dual mandate. In Europe, the pound was supported by a weaker dollar. Traders await the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts on March 26, as finance minister Rachel Reeves faces pressure to clarify how she will balance the budget without violating her own fiscal rules.

The pound rebounded from the low of 1.2577 last week to break through the 200-week moving average of 1.2726 and 1.2924 (the 61.8% Fibonacci rebound from the high of 1.3434 in late September last year to the low of 1.2099 in mid-January) to a six-month high of 1.2945. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) climbed above 58.70, indicating strong bullish momentum. GBP/USD temporarily encountered initial resistance near 1.3000 (market psychological barrier), which may have paused the recent bull market trend. Once it decisively breaks through 1.3000 (market psychological barrier), it will push buying to 1.3118 (76.4% Fibonacci rebound level). On the other hand, if GBP/USD makes technical adjustments first, the first support can focus on 1.2800 (integer barrier) and 1.2766 (50% Fibonacci rebound level), followed by the 200-week moving average of 1.2726 and the integer barrier of 1.2700.

Today, we recommend going long on GBP before 1.2910, stop loss: 1.2900, target: 1.2955, 1.2970

USD/JPY

The yen held near its highest level since early October last year at 147.30 against a generally weaker dollar last week, supported by hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan. In addition, continued speculation that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates also exerted upward pressure on Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing of the interest rate differential between Japan and other countries further drove fund flows to the lower-yielding yen. Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on the global economy continued to weigh on investor sentiment. This was evident in the generally weaker tone of the stock market, further favoring the relative safe-haven status of the yen. On the other hand, investors remain concerned that US President Trump may impose new tariffs on Japan. In addition to this, a good recovery in US Treasury yields and a generally positive sentiment in the stock market may limit gains in the safe-haven yen. This, combined with a general dollar selling bias, suggests that the path of least resistance for USD/JPY is to the downside. The US dollar is hovering near multi-month lows as the market bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year, further pressuring USD/JPY.

From a technical perspective, this week's break below the key support of 148.50-148.51 (5-day moving average) level is seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Nonetheless, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is close to the oversold territory (latest at 33.40), which warrants caution. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for some short-term consolidation or a mild rebound before positioning for the two-month downtrend in USD/JPY. Meanwhile, the aforementioned support level of 148.50-148.51 area is likely to limit any rebound attempts. Next on the heels is the 149.00 round mark, and the possibility of a short-term covering after a breakout would push the pair towards the 150.00 psychological mark. The momentum could extend to the resistance of the 20-day MA at 150.44 and then the 151.00 level, although it may be limited around the 151.60 (30-day MA) area. On the other hand, the multi-month low of the 147.30 area hit last Thursday now appears to be an immediate support before the 147.00 mark. A further sell-off may expose the next relevant support of the 146.40 area, eventually taking the USD/JPY pair down to the 146.00 round mark, towards the 145.60-145.50 area and the 145.00 psychological mark.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 148.22, stop loss: 148.50; target: 147.20, 147.00

EUR/USD

The bullish momentum continues to build as EUR/USD moved higher last week, reaching its highest level since November 2024 at 1.0888. Buyers remain firmly in control, pushing the pair into new territory, with price action now reflecting strong upside momentum. During Friday’s North American session, EUR/USD traded firmly at a fresh four-month high of 1.0888 following the release of weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data. The US dollar was already on the back foot as concerns over the US economic outlook grew, with investors concerned about uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff agenda. Market participants believe that the pressure of higher tariffs will be borne by US importers, who will pass the impact on to consumers. Such a situation will weaken their purchasing power and ultimately affect domestic demand. Last Thursday, Trump announced an easing of tariffs on a range of products that fall under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) until April 2, and he is expected to introduce reciprocal tariffs on the same day. The US President on Tuesday imposed a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico, but granted a one-month exemption for cars after discussions with three major US automakers.

EUR/USD continued its rally from the early-week low of 1.0376 last week, and after breaking through the key 1.0700 (round number), and the 160-day simple moving average of 1.0701, it headed straight for a five-month high of 1.0888, showing strong bullish momentum. The pair has risen more than 5% last week, further consolidating the control of buyers. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator on the daily chart is in the overbought zone around 72.65. This indicates that although the pair maintains bullish momentum, profit-taking or a short-term correction may occur. At the same time, the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) continues to show rising green bars, confirming the continued upward bias. Therefore, in terms of downside corrections, 1.0800 (market psychological level) can be watched, the next level is 1.0775 (last Friday's low), and the 200-day simple moving average of 1.0722. The next key resistance level is expected to be in the 1.0703 (5-day moving average) and 1.0700 (integer mark) area after decisively breaking through the 200-day moving average. The 5-day and 160-day moving averages of the currency pair formed a "golden cross" bullish pattern in the second half of last week, so the EUR/USD continued to rise, and the next key resistance level is expected to be in the 1.0900 mark area. If this level is broken, it may open the door to further rise to 1.0950 and the psychological mark of 1.1000.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.0835, stop loss: 1.0820, target: 1.0880, 1.0890.

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