Equity Analysis
Australia ASX 200 Index
Market Overview
The Australian ASX 200 fell 55 points, or 0.6%, on Thursday to close at 8,911, ending a four-day winning streak. Early gains faded as sentiment deteriorated after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the new ceasefire agreement with Iran was not a final deal, reviving concerns that tensions in the Middle East could flare up again.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected, but signalled that its next move could be a rate hike, adding to market caution. The local market pulled back from a two-month high under profit-taking pressure. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates by a cumulative 75 basis points since January, inflation concerns remain persistent. Markets are also watching the possibility that a severe El Nino event in 2026 could add further price pressure in Australia. Among the major sectors, non-energy materials, consumer services and utilities mostly traded lower.

Technical Analysis
The ASX 200 closed Thursday at 8,911.1, down 0.62% on the day. The medium-term trend remains in an upward channel, and the index is still holding above both the 21-day EMA and the 50-day SMA, meaning the medium- to long-term bullish structure has not been broken. After testing the 8,940 area earlier this month, the index entered a high-level consolidation phase. The strong overhead resistance has not been decisively broken, so the short-term setup has shifted into a high-level, slightly weaker consolidation pattern.

Thursday's session was weak throughout: the index came under pressure at the open, continued to fade in the afternoon and closed back at 8,911. This was a low-volume pullback after an attempted breakout, and bullish momentum has clearly weakened. RSI has retreated to around 54 from overbought territory; it is not oversold, but upside momentum is fading. MACD histogram bars continue to contract and the two lines are close to forming a bearish crossover, suggesting a short-term correction bias. In volume-price terms, the decline came with moderate volume. Selling pressure is obvious in the 8,930-8,940 area, and buying support is insufficient. A short-term retest of moving-average support is likely.

Key Risk Reminder
The above market information is for review and reference only and does not constitute investment or trading advice. Commodities, U.S. Treasury yields and overseas monetary policy may continue to generate significant volatility in Australian resource and financial sectors.

New Zealand 50 Index (NZX 50)
Market Overview
The NZX 50 fell 51 points, or 0.4%, on Thursday to close at 13,202. The index ended a two-day rally and hit its lowest level in two weeks, after reaching its highest level since 7 May the previous day. The broader market followed Wall Street lower on Wednesday as escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher.

Concerns around U.S. May inflation also weighed on sentiment, as inflation accelerated to its highest level in three years, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged. Investors remained cautious ahead of New Zealand's May business PMI data due Friday, after the index posted its weakest growth in seven months in April. Financials, materials and industrials were the main drags. Notable decliners included Infratil (-1.9%), Mainfreight (-1.8%), Ebos Group (-1.2%), Fletcher Building (-1.0%) and Westpac Banking Corp. (-0.9%).

Technical Analysis
After rebounding from an early-June low of 13,022 to a swing high of 13,526, the NZX 50 entered a high-level consolidation and pullback phase. Price is currently below the 20-day moving average and above the 50-day moving average. This indicates a short-term correction following a bullish rebound, while the medium-term uptrend remains intact.

RSI (14) has eased from the overbought area around 61 to a neutral reading near 52. There is no clear overbought or oversold signal, and momentum is balanced. MACD bullish histogram bars are narrowing, while DIF is turning lower toward DEA, giving a short-term pullback warning, although a bearish crossover has not yet formed. In volume-price terms, the two-day pullback after the breakout attempt occurred on shrinking volume. Selling pressure has not expanded, suggesting a healthy consolidation rather than a broad exit by capital.

Overall, the market is in a high-level consolidation pattern with a slight downside bias. The medium-term bullish structure remains intact, but the short term still needs corrective consolidation. Overhead resistance is dense and downside support is layered. The index is likely to remain range-bound until an external catalyst triggers a breakout.

Risk Reminder
Sharp moves in U.S. equities and the ASX 200 can transmit directly into the NZX 50. A large overnight decline in U.S. equities would likely result in a weaker open for the New Zealand market the next day. A sustained rise in international crude oil would lift domestic inflation pressure and weigh on risk appetite. Escalating geopolitical conflict may also trigger global risk-off flows out of equities.

Currency Analysis
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index rose for a second straight session on Thursday to 100.80, its highest level since May 2025, as investors increased bets on a rate hike later this year following the Federal Reserve's hawkish signal. The Fed left rates unchanged as expected, but indicated that support for policy tightening later this year is growing. Around half of FOMC members now expect at least one rate hike in 2026, while the central bank also raised its inflation forecasts amid the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not provide guidance on the next policy move, but stressed that inflation has remained above the 2% target in recent years and reiterated the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability. Markets are now fully pricing in a rate hike in October. The U.S. dollar strengthened broadly, with the largest moves against sterling and the Swiss franc after the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank both kept rates unchanged.

As the probability of a Fed rate hike later this year rises, the dollar may continue to rebound. The June Summary of Economic Projections shows that half of FOMC members expect at least one hike this year. Despite economic disruption linked to the Iran conflict, strong labour-market data and persistent underlying inflation continue to create tightening pressure. The Dollar Index has rebounded strongly from a mid-May low near 97.80, reclaiming the 100 level and touching a near three-month high around 100.57. It eased slightly this morning to around 100.25.

Key resistance lies at 101.00, a round-number level, followed by the 101.50 area. Bulls need a breakout above that zone to confirm the current rebound as a genuine trend reversal. The next upside level would be the 102.00 round number. On the downside, if the Dollar Index fails to extend higher, it may first pull back toward the 100.00 psychological level. A break below that would bring the 99.57 area (20-day MA) and 99.49 (Wednesday's low) into focus as key support. The overall bias is higher, but today's data will be an important threshold.

Today's reference idea: consider shorting the Dollar Index at 100.90, with a stop loss at 101.00 and targets at 100.50 and 100.40.

AUD/USD
The Australian dollar rose above 0.7015 against the U.S. dollar, but remained close to a two-month low after the U.S. dollar strengthened sharply following the Fed rate decision. Although the Fed kept policy rates unchanged, half of FOMC members expect a rate hike later this year as inflation concerns intensify. At the same time, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh shifted away from providing forward guidance in his first communication and emphasised a policy stance focused more heavily on inflation.

In Australia, the RBA signalled further tightening after leaving rates steady. Governor Michele Bullock stressed that inflation remains too high and reiterated that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. Although markets are increasingly questioning whether the tightening cycle is already over, the RBA's hawkish tone keeps the probability of one final rate hike this year at around 50%. Elsewhere, U.S. President Trump signed a temporary agreement to end the war with Iran, although it remains unclear whether Iran has begun steps to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

AUD/USD came under pressure after the rate decision and fell toward 0.6995. The broader U.S. dollar remained firm, and the fact that half of FOMC members expect a rate hike later this year further limited the upside for AUD/USD. On the daily chart, the pair has staged a technical rebound after a clear decline, and price is now testing a key moving-average zone. RSI (14) has recovered from oversold territory to around 40, but remains in a weak zone, suggesting that bearish pressure has not fully faded.

If the pair can break decisively above resistance near the 20-day moving average around 0.7098 and this week's high at 0.7088, it may have room to test 0.7116 and the moving-average resistance zone near 0.7143. On the downside, watch the important psychological support around 0.7000. If that level fails, the pair may open a deeper correction toward 0.6951, the 150-day moving average.

Today's reference idea: consider going long AUD at 0.7003, with a stop loss at 0.6992 and targets at 0.7050 and 0.7040.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD turned lower after an earlier rebound attempt and fell below 1.3250 during the European session on Thursday. Mixed U.K. employment data failed to provide the pair with a firm footing, while traders stayed cautious ahead of the Bank of England policy announcement. Spot price regained the 1.3300 level as the U.S. dollar slipped slightly, although upside appears limited against a broadly negative fundamental backdrop.

As widely expected, the U.S. central bank held the benchmark overnight lending rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range and made substantial revisions to its policy statement, removing key language that had pointed to a future easing bias. In addition, the median estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 was raised from 3.4% in March to 3.8%, suggesting that the committee expects at least one rate hike this year. This may limit any corrective decline in the U.S. dollar and cap gains in GBP/USD as Bank of England rate-hike bets cool. Data released by the U.K. Office for National Statistics on Wednesday showed that headline CPI held at 2.8% year on year in May, further dampening expectations of additional BoE tightening.

On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading near the lower Bollinger Band and below the 20-day moving average around 1.3260. Direction is not clearly trending, and the pair remains in a broad range. Price continues to rotate around key moving averages and is repeatedly contesting the 1.3200-1.3300 area. On the indicator side, MACD is close to the zero line, with DIFF and DEA almost overlapping. Momentum bars are weak, showing that neither bulls nor bears have a clear one-way driver. RSI (14) is below 40, but it is neither overbought nor deeply oversold, indicating balanced pressure between buyers and sellers.

If the pair breaks resistance near the 1.3300 round number, it may have room to test 1.3371, the 9-day moving average, and then the 1.3400 round-number area. If it breaks key support at 1.3193, Thursday's low, downside may reopen toward the 1.3150 area.

Today's reference idea: consider going long GBP at 1.3200, with a stop loss at 1.3190 and targets at 1.3250 and 1.3260.

USD/JPY
The yen weakened against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, falling to a near two-year low. USD/JPY reached 161.81, its highest level since the July 2024 annual high of 161.95, driven by a hawkish Federal Reserve and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields. After breaking the 30 April swing high of 160.73, USD/JPY moved beyond the intervention zone. On that day, Japanese authorities had pushed the pair down by 385 points to close at 156.59. Since then, the pair has rebounded by more than 487 points and refreshed a multi-year high.

Notably, a break above 162.00 would mark a new high in nearly 40 years, with the next resistance at the December 1986 monthly high of 163.36. In addition to the shift in Fed policy, investors welcomed the U.S.-Iran agreement, which typically weighs on safe-haven currencies such as the yen. Meanwhile, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said that authorities are ready to respond appropriately to exchange-rate moves as needed. This week, the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1%, but the yen failed to find support as rising U.S. Treasury yields and improving risk appetite weighed on it.

On the daily chart, USD/JPY is trading around 161.45 and has extended its breakout above support near 159.09 formed by three simple moving averages, as well as reclaimed trend-line support around 157.17 and 154.05. Together, these factors point to a firm near-term bullish bias. The pair also remains above horizontal support at 160.00, while RSI (14) is around 69, indicating overbought conditions. This suggests upside momentum remains strong, although the risk of a corrective pullback is gradually increasing.

Initial support lies at 160.00, followed by the triple-SMA area near 159.09. If a pullback develops, buyers may try to regain control there. The broader uptrend remains intact. On the upside, watch Thursday's high at 161.81 and the 162.00 psychological level.

Today's reference idea: consider shorting USD at 161.52, with a stop loss at 161.70 and targets at 160.50 and 160.00.

EUR/USD
EUR/USD lost momentum after a corrective rebound and traded in negative territory below 1.1500 during the European session on Thursday. The U.S. dollar remained firm after the hawkish Fed event, making it difficult for the pair to build recovery momentum. The euro strengthened against the dollar earlier as risk sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding to end the war.

The BBC reported late Wednesday that the White House said Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian had signed a memorandum of understanding to end the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. Bloomberg reported that Iran and the United States are expected to formally sign the memorandum in Geneva on Friday. Hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal may support risk assets in the short term, including shared currencies such as the euro.

On Wednesday, in the Federal Reserve's first meeting under Kevin Warsh, policymakers unanimously voted to keep the benchmark federal funds rate in the 3.5%-3.75% range. Fed officials said a rate hike remains possible while they assess the inflationary impact of the Iran war. The U.S. central bank's hawkish hold may support the dollar and limit upside in EUR/USD.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD has formed a consolidation range around 1.1500-1.1450 and briefly tested the lower 1.1460 level. MACD supports a bearish view. Although the signal line remains above the zero line, it is turning sharply lower, reflecting persistent bearish momentum and the possibility of trend continuation. Fundamentals have clearly shifted in favour of the dollar and may push price lower, unless upcoming data undermines the Fed's renewed inflation concerns.

A rebound into the 1.1580-1.1600 zone is more likely to create a selling opportunity. The previously broken 1.1550 level now acts as a rebound ceiling. The 1.1593 level, the 20-day moving average, and the 1.1600 round number represent stronger resistance. A move back into that zone would suggest that selling pressure is fading. Conversely, if price stays capped below 1.1550, the 1.1500 level becomes an obvious magnet. A decisive break below it could open the way to 1.1450 and the 1.1400 round-number area.

Today's reference idea: consider going long EUR at 1.1450, with a stop loss at 1.1440 and targets at 1.1510 and 1.1520.

Commodity Analysis
WTI Spot Crude Oil
Crude oil traded near USD 75 per barrel on Thursday, extending its decline from early March after reports that the United States and Iran had digitally signed a temporary peace agreement. A U.S. official confirmed that the memorandum of understanding had taken effect, although it remains unclear whether Iran has begun measures to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

According to reports, the agreement includes the rapid reopening of this critical shipping route and the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, while negotiations over nuclear issues and potential additional economic incentives are expected to continue. Market participants are also monitoring shipping companies that have largely suspended transport through the strait due to U.S. and Iranian blockades. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency warned of a potential supply surplus, forecasting that global oil supply could increase by 8 million barrels per day by 2027, while demand growth may rise by only 2 million barrels per day.

International oil prices have been under pressure for five consecutive sessions. WTI crude touched the USD 74.50 level intraday, while Brent fell below USD 78, with both benchmarks hitting three-month lows. The market is shifting from a geopolitical-premium logic to a supply-return logic, although physical restoration may still take several weeks. Short-term bulls and bears are now in a highly contested phase.

From a daily-chart perspective, WTI crude has continued to retreat after its earlier rally and has now broken below its short-term rising-trend support zone. The overall structure is gradually shifting from strong upside momentum to a high-level, slightly bearish consolidation pattern. Although some technical buying support has emerged near USD 75, price remains below the major moving-average system, showing that medium-term momentum has weakened. MACD continues to run below the zero line, and bearish momentum remains dominant.

If price cannot reclaim the USD 75.00-76.72 zone, the market may continue to trade in a range while probing lower. Key resistance is at USD 76.72, the 150-day moving average, and the USD 80.00 psychological level. Downside support is at USD 72.76, the 150-day moving average cited in the source, and the USD 70.00 round-number zone.

Today's reference idea: consider shorting crude oil at 75.65, with a stop loss at 75.80 and targets at 73.50 and 73.00.

Spot Gold
Gold struggled to attract buyers on Thursday, with price near USD 4,200 per ounce. As the U.S. dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve's hawkish hold on Wednesday, gold extended Wednesday's pullback and fell back toward multi-day lows. Gold prices dropped nearly 2% on Wednesday. Although the Fed kept the policy rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, the committee's tone was hawkish, and the policy statement removed language that had previously implied possible rate cuts this year, while fully removing any forward guidance on future rate moves.

After new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh completed his debut, the market reversed abruptly. Gold fell sharply, at one point dropping more than 2% to USD 4,219 per ounce, and finally closed at USD 4,257.60, down 1.7% on the day. Warsh's statement and the dot plot were both hawkish, and he did not push back against that message. That was the core reason behind the sharp fall in gold: the market had expected the new chair to release at least some dovish signal, but instead received a clear hawkish shock. In the days before the Fed decision, gold had just experienced a strong rebound, rising more than 6% over four consecutive sessions.

Technically, XAU/USD remains capped near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-June decline and below the downward-sloping 200-day simple moving average at 4,464.50. The overall trend remains bearish. RSI (14) is around 40, while MACD is slightly positive, suggesting that momentum is stabilising but has not yet shown clear upside traction.

Any further rebound may encounter immediate resistance around the USD 4,400 level, followed by the 200-day SMA at 4,464.50. A daily close above those resistance levels would help ease bearish pressure and open room for a further challenge toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near USD 4,560. Conversely, immediate support lies near the lower Bollinger Band around USD 4,104, followed by a structural floor near the recent swing low around USD 4,024. A break below that level would reinforce the existing bearish bias and could trigger a deeper decline.

Today's reference idea: consider going long gold at 4,205, with a stop loss at 4,200 and targets at 4,250 and 4,260.