US dollar index

On Monday, the U.S. dollar index was basically trading just below 102 after rising volatility last week, as investors turned their attention to major U.S. economic data, which may affect market expectations for the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Market participants are awaiting the crucial October jobs report, as well as the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing and services surveys. Many Federal Reserve officials also plan to give speeches, which may further reveal clues about the central bank's next policy decision. Last week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected, and current market pricing reflects that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in December is about 75%. On the geopolitical front, oil prices retreated following reports that President Donald Trump intends to allow more time for diplomatic efforts as the midterm elections approach. Elsewhere, a sell-off in artificial intelligence-related stocks appeared to be easing after sharp losses on Friday, with demand for safe-haven assets falling.

The U.S. dollar index continued to rebound from lows in October and then began to fluctuate at high levels. It hit a range high of 102.94 in the middle of the month and fell back to around 101.95 at the end of the month, marking the second consecutive month of gains. Previously, the index bottomed out at 98.55 in mid-August. The center of gravity continued to move upward in September, and the strength in October continued the rebound structure since the end of the third quarter. There are good reasons for the dollar to continue to find support heading into November, but there are significantly less reasons to extend the rally. Stubborn inflation, a Fed unwilling to declare victory, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty should continue to curb aggressive selling. However, the dollar's failure to take advantage of the increasingly hawkish backdrop suggests that much of the positive news may already be priced in. Therefore, in the upward direction, attention can be paid to 102.56 {maintenance plus trajectory}, and 102.53 {October 5th high}, which is the first resistance area. If it breaks, it will see 102.94 {October 14th high}, and 103.00 {integer mark}. On the downside, pay attention to the 34-day simple moving average of 101.58; and 101.60 {last Friday's low}; if the price breaks, it will point to the 101.00 mark.

Today you can consider shorting the US dollar at 101.86, stop loss: 102.00, target: 101..40; 101.50

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell to around $0.70 on the first trading day of November, extending a slight decline from the previous week, as investors prepared for the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy decision on Tuesday. Markets expect the bank to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.85 per cent, close to the highest level in nearly two decades. This would be the bank's fifth rate hike this year and underscores policymakers' determination to prioritize curbing inflation. The overall inflation rate in the third quarter rose to 3.9% year-on-year, well above the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2% to 3%; the core inflation rate also remained at a high of 3.7%. Meanwhile, despite the unemployment rate remaining at a five-year high of 4.7 per cent in September, Governor Michelle Bullock said the labor market was "slightly tighter than the Reserve Bank of Australia expected". On the economic front, the monthly inflation indicator of the Melbourne Institute of Australia rose by 0.5% month-on-month in October 2026, which was higher than the 0.3% increase in the previous month and increased for the fourth consecutive month.

On the daily chart, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7000, holding below the 100-day {0.7033} and 200-day {0.7057} simple moving averages, with the overall tone still subdued despite the recovery from recent lows. The 55-day SMA 0.7072 further increases supply above, while the RSI (14) is around 49.70, indicating slightly constructive momentum in a still bearish structure as prices struggle to regain ground above these medium-term moving averages. On the upside, initial resistance is near the 200-day {0.7057} simple moving average, followed by the 55-day simple moving average at 0.7072, with horizontal resistance at 0.7079 ahead. Further up, the 0.7100 mark forms a broader resistance band. On the downside, the first more obvious support is found at 0.6987 {25-day simple moving average} and 0.6954 {October 19 low}. If the selling pressure picks up again, the 0.6900 mark will mark a more substantial mid-term bottom level.

Today you can consider going long Australian dollar at 0.6990, stop loss: 0.980; target: 0.7030; 0.7040

GBP/USD

Sterling rose above $1.3400, reaching its highest level since mid-September and is up about one percent this month. It was the pound's first monthly gain since August, helped by the government's budget and growing expectations for a Bank of England interest rate hike in November. Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey announced his first budget on Wednesday. The spending plan was generally in line with expectations and there were few market surprises. He said that the government will use part of its fiscal space to achieve its main fiscal targets; the fiscal space has been reduced from 24 billion pounds to 15 billion pounds. At the same time, the government will continue to work to restore public finances in the face of the economic impact of the Iran conflict. The money market has almost fully priced in the Bank of England's expectation of raising interest rates on November 5, with further rate hikes expected in February and July; the probability of another rate hike by December 2027 is 50%. Continued above-target inflation, rising bond yields and stronger-than-expected economic data have further strengthened market expectations for policy tightening.

GBP/USD is currently trading around 1.3400, and the threshold for the next stage of the pound's rise is being raised. The short-term direction depends on the wording of Thursday's Bank of England decision and Friday's US employment data - if the US labor market improves to boost the dollar, sterling will face headwinds. From a technical perspective, spot prices maintain a mild bullish bias above the 100-day simple moving average at 1.3387, while approaching a dense Fibonacci resistance zone above. In addition, momentum indicators remain supportive, with the relative strength index (RSI) hovering around 57, and the moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) showing positive values ​​and a constructive tone above the zero axis. This supports the case for further gains in GBP/USD. At the same time, the 50.0% retracement of the 100-day simple moving average at 1.3407 is the immediate upper limit, and higher resistance is at the 61.8% level at 1.3471 and the 78.6% retracement at 1.3561. If buyers can continue the rise, these will constitute the next upward target. On the downside, initial support lies at the 100-day simple moving average at 1.3387, which guards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3344, while a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% level at 1.3265.

Today you can consider going long GBP at 1.3394, stop loss: 1.3385; target: 1.3440; 1.3430

USD/JPY

During the Asian session on Monday, the USD/JPY rebounded from the lows reached after the Bank of Japan’s decision last Friday and was trading around 157.85. The interest rate differential between the United States and Japan remains high, and the Fed's December interest rate hike is expected to be about 75%. However, Japan's Ministry of Finance reiterated that it retains the option of currency intervention, and the advancement of diplomacy in the Middle East weakened the buying of safe-haven US dollars, and the upside space is limited. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki said on Monday that the U.S.-Japan joint foreign exchange statement remains valid and the government is ready to take action to curb excessive or disorderly depreciation of the yen. Original text However, this statement failed to form effective support for the yen - market uncertainty about the future timing of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes continues, coupled with the huge interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies, the low-yielding yen continues to be under pressure. The strengthening of expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve is another key factor supporting the rise of the dollar against the yen. This means that the path of least resistance for USD and USDJPY remains to the upside

The current core contradiction between the US dollar and the yen lies in the tug-of-war between "US-Japan interest rate differential support" and "Japanese intervention risk + Middle East diplomatic easing". In the short term, the exchange rate is oscillating and gaining momentum in the range of 157.20-157.85, with last week's high of 158.35 above it; if it breaks through this level decisively, it will increase the possibility of further rising to the upper edge of the consolidation range of 159.04; followed by the possibility of approaching 160.00. The 157.00 mark below and 156.96 {last week's low} provide support. Three variables need to be focused on in the follow-up: First, changes in the Fed's December interest rate hike expectations. If inflation data continues to strengthen tightening expectations, the exchange rate may break through 158.34 and continue upward; second, the policy trends of the Japanese Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan; if intervention risks materially increase, the exchange rate may fall back quickly; third, substantial progress in the situation in the Middle East. If diplomatic negotiations break down or military conflicts escalate, safe-haven buying may push the U.S. dollar higher against the yen.

Today you can consider shorting the US dollar at 158.10, stop loss: 158.30; target: 157.50; 157.40

EUR/USD

The euro rose against the dollar on Monday as modest risk appetite and a pullback in oil prices from highs offset investor disappointment over weak German consumption data. EUR/USD opened the European session at 1.1190, up from last week's highs near 1.1100 but still within Friday's trading range. German data released on Monday showed that retail sales fell by 2% on a monthly basis in September and increased by 1.2% in August, while market expectations were for a 0.4% increase. On an annualized basis, retail sales fell 2.3% after falling 0.3% in the previous month. However, the impact of these data was tempered by falling oil prices, which provided some breathing room to the euro zone's economies that rely on imported oil. Brent crude oil fell more than 2% on Monday, with prices falling below $110.00, as Qatari mediators continued to cooperate with Tehran to resume U.S.-Iran peace talks.

On the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a short-term bearish bias as spot prices continue to trade below the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1427. Prices are also below the 34-day simple moving average at 1.1270, keeping the pair in the lower half of its recent range, while the Relative Strength Index (14) is around 42, indicating weak but stable downside momentum rather than oversold conditions. On the upside, initial resistance is located at 1.1270 of the 34-day simple moving average, and 1.1262 {guaranteed plus trajectory}; further, it is close to the integer mark of 1.1300, and the more important upper limit appears at 1.1427 of the 100-day simple moving average. On the downside, the Bollinger lower track line of 1.1130 provides the next meaningful support, and if it clearly falls below this bottom, it will reopen the space to create a new low under the current bearish pattern of 1.1100 mark.

Today you can consider going long the euro at 1.1180, stop loss: 1.1170; target: 1.1220; 1.1230

WTI spot crude oil

On Monday, crude oil prices continued their decline, falling more than 7 percent to around $95 a barrel. Market concerns about further supply disruptions have eased as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict have grown. Iran's state news agency reported that the country's supreme leader gave the government permission to seek talks to end a months-long conflict that has disrupted energy supplies in the Middle East. It was previously reported that US President Donald Trump also wanted to give diplomatic mediation more time before considering resuming military action and told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he would prefer a negotiated solution. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated Trump's preference for a peaceful solution, while Iranian officials said a deal was still possible after two days of Qatar-brokered discussions, provided commitments were implemented on the ground.

On the daily chart, WTI U.S. crude oil fell below $100, holding just below the 9-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $100.48, which limits the upside and keeps the short-term bias still slightly bearish on a strong rebound since the mid-$80s. Price action is below this short-term EMA, suggesting bulls are losing momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (14) remains in positive territory around 50, suggesting momentum remains constructive but has yet to translate into a clear bullish breakout of immediate resistance. On the upside, 100.95 {5-day exponential moving average (EMA)} offers the first support, before the five-month high at $104.03 serves as key resistance for oil prices. On the downside, first look at the low of $95.05 on October 20; if the level is broken, it will point to the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $93.25, which may constitute a key support level.

Today you can consider going long crude oil at 95.20, stop loss: 95.00; target: 97.00; 98.00

Spot Gold

Gold managed to hold onto modest intraday gains above the $3,900 level during the European session on Monday, though it lacked follow-through buying amid mixed fundamental signals. The US Dollar faced fresh selling pressure—partly due to optimism surrounding a potential diplomatic breakthrough to end the US-Iran conflict—which provided some support to the precious metal. Meanwhile, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, fueled by oil-driven inflation concerns, remain firmly on the table; this has kept the non-yielding yellow metal hovering near the lows reached last Friday—levels not seen since October 2025. Reports indicate that Iran has proposed a 48-hour plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran are progressing well, with Tehran appearing keen to reach an agreement. However, Trump added that he has not ruled out further military action following the midterm elections on November 3rd. This, combined with fresh attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries, has kept a geopolitical risk premium in play and left US Dollar bears on the defensive—suggesting that caution is warranted before establishing new long positions in gold.

Last week’s decisive break and consolidation below the $4,000 psychological threshold served as a key catalyst for bearish traders. Furthermore, on the 4-hour chart, the precious metal remains well below the 100-period exponential moving average (EMA) of $4,085, confirming a negative short-term outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory, with the MACD line positioned below its signal line and the histogram showing weakness. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 28.94—hovering within the oversold zone—which suggests that while downward pressure remains dominant, the recent decline may be somewhat overextended in the near term. However, any subsequent upward movement toward $3,997 (the 34-period exponential moving average, or EMA) and the $4,000 psychological level may attract fresh selling. Gains are likely to be capped near the 100-period EMA at $4,085—a key level that the bulls must reclaim to alleviate the current bearish bias. On the downside, traders will now look toward Friday’s swing low, in the vicinity of $3,870, as a potential area of ​​demand. Should this level fail to hold, it would pave the way for a continuation of the established downtrend toward the $3,800 round-number mark.

For today, consider going long on gold at $3,940, with a stop-loss at $3,935 and targets at $3,980 and $3,990.