USD

On Tuesday, President-elect Trump stated on his social media channels that his administration will impose an additional 25% tariff on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, in addition to a previously announced 60% tariff on Chinese goods, with an additional 10% tariff as the U.S. dollar fluctuates in the market. After announcing his pick for U.S. Treasury Secretary, market concerns about the impact of the U.S. political situation on the economy eased, causing the dollar to initially fall early in the week. Furthermore, news of potential ceasefire talks in the Middle East also put pressure on the dollar. The U.S. dollar index retreated to a two-day low, but rebounded to the 106.60 area on Monday. U.S. economic data will be frequent, and the minutes from the Federal Reserve meeting will be a highlight. Additionally, geopolitical tensions sparked by the Russia-Ukraine conflict have also contributed to this positive development. On Tuesday in Asian markets, the dollar index rebounded sharply, oscillating above 107. Due to the Thanksgiving holiday, the U.S. market will be closed on November 28.

Daily chart technical indicators suggest that due to overbought conditions, a consolidation period may occur; the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought levels (currently around 65), and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is contracting. Despite the consolidation, the overall bullish trend remains intact. On the upside, the first resistance level to watch is 107.56 (Tuesday's high), breaking which may continue the rally to 108.00 (round number) and 108.07 (last Friday's high) levels. As for support, it is found at the 10-day moving average, currently around 106.65, and at 106.58 (Monday's low), followed by the 106.00 (psychological market level). Bulls must hold this area to maintain the bullish momentum.

Today, consider shorting the U.S. dollar index around 107.00, with a stop loss at 107.15 and targets at 106.60, 106.55.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

On Tuesday, the trading price for WTI crude was approximately $68.55 per barrel. According to an unnamed senior U.S. official, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to terms to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, causing a slight drop in WTI prices. However, escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly Russia's actions in Ukraine, may limit the downside for WTI. Crude erased its gains for the week after an unexpected increase in U.S. inventories. Additionally, following the news cited from an unnamed senior U.S. official that Israel and Lebanon have reached an agreement to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, WTI prices fluctuated lower. However, intensifying geopolitical tensions, especially with Russia's military actions in Ukraine, could prevent a significant drop in WTI prices. Before the latest round of declines in WTI prices, the risk premium on oil was already low. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Iran continue to escalate, raising market concerns about possible disruptions in oil supply, which will boost WTI prices in the short term. Moreover, signs of recovery in China's oil demand, as the world's largest importer of crude oil, support WTI prices.

Before this year's last OPEC+ meeting, crude oil prices are entering a precarious phase. This meeting is crucial not only for determining when production normalization will be achieved by 2025 but also because the U.S. market will be closed due to Thanksgiving and Black Friday. In such a scenario, any market-influencing statements could lead to significant fluctuations due to illiquidity and unusual market participant behavior. On a positive note, the first resistance level is at $70.00 (psychological market level), followed by $71.38 (high on November 22), and $72.52 (100-day simple moving average) which are the two main factors constituting resistance. On the other hand, traders should look for the first support at $67.66. If breached, the low point for 2024 to date could reach $66.57 (low on October 29).

Today, consider going long on crude oil around $68.50, with a stop loss at $68.30 and targets at $70.00 and $70.20.

XAUUSD

On Tuesday, as rumors circulated about an imminent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, gold prices fluctuated above $2600 after falling nearly 3% (over $90) on Monday. While this is good news for Lebanon, it's not favorable for gold as it improves the geopolitical risk outlook. Gold prices rebounded strongly after touching a six-day low of $2605 during early Asian trading on Tuesday. Gold buyers are waiting for the minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting to provide guidance for the next push higher. Gold continued the previous day's corrective downward trend before gaining strong support from a new wave of safe-haven demand, touching multi-day lows. Increasing concerns about an impending global trade war have depressed risk sentiment, driving safe-haven flows towards the U.S. dollar and traditional safe-haven asset gold. However, renewed demand for the dollar and a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields have tempered the enthusiasm of gold buyers. Moreover, the easing of geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon remains a headwind for the precious metal. Influenced by the news of President-elect Donald Trump appointing billionaire Scott Bescent as Treasury Secretary, both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields fell sharply at the start of the week, sidelining gold prices.

From the daily chart, after a significant pullback at the beginning of the week, gold prices are now consolidating and rebounding around $2630. Gold bulls are cautious due to the imminent formation of a "death cross." The 21-day moving average (2667) is approaching from above to cut through the 50-day moving average (2666). If this crossover occurs at the daily close, it will confirm a bearish crossover. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has found footing below the 50 level, currently at 45.90, adding credibility to the potential for further downside. Immediate support is at the intraday low of $2605 and the psychological market level of $2600. If broken, a drop to $2584.30 (89-day moving average) is possible. Continuing below this level might challenge $2566.00 (100-day moving average). Conversely, gold buyers need a daily closing price above the 21-day (2667) and 50-day (2666) moving averages. The next upward barriers are at the $2700 level and Monday's high of $2721.

Today, consider going long on gold around $2628.00, with a stop loss at $2625 and targets at $2645.00 and $2650.00.

AUDUSD

On Tuesday, the AUD/USD quickly reversed a positive start to the week on Monday, shifting focus downward and setting a multi-week new low near 0.6430 ahead of Australian inflation data release. The AUD/USD found it difficult to benefit from a rebound from the 0.6435-0.6430 area (the lowest level since August 5, reached earlier in the week) and remained in a narrow range during the first half of the European trading session. The spot price is currently trading just below the 0.6500 area, marking a second consecutive day of declines, appearing vulnerable amidst renewed concerns over the US-China trade war. Following the appointment of Wall Street veteran S. Bescent as the next U.S. Treasury Secretary by President-elect Trump, the dollar saw a significant reversal early this week. Despite this development, the Australian dollar struggled to regain upward momentum, continuing last week's losses and falling below the key 0.6500 support level. In stark contrast to the dollar's decline, major Australian export commodities such as copper and iron ore also fell at the start of the week. Ongoing concerns about Chinese economic stimulus measures and their potential impact on Australian exports have added pressure on the Australian dollar.

From a short-term technical perspective, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AUD/USD remains below the neutral 50 level (currently at 41), indicating that the short-term trend is still weak. However, from a medium-term perspective, assuming bullish traders regain dominance in the market, the next resistance levels would be the 20-day moving average at 0.6540, and 0.6550 (Monday's high). This is followed by the 35-day moving average at 0.6597, and the psychological market level of 0.6600. Breaking through these would directly target the 200-day moving average at 0.6629. On the other hand, preliminary support is at the November low of 0.6440 (November 14), followed by the round number level of 0.6400.

Today, consider going long on the Australian dollar around 0.6450, with a stop loss at 0.6440 and targets at 0.6520 and 0.6530.

GBPUSD

After rising to just below 1.2600 earlier in the week, GBP/USD lost traction. Nevertheless, the pair's decline remained limited as the dollar struggled to find demand following mixed data releases. The market is awaiting the minutes from the FOMC meeting. The currency pair fell to the 1.2500 area during Monday's Asian trading session but managed to rebound to around 1.2580 in the early European session on Tuesday, as market liquidity provided little support for the pound. There are limited economic events in the UK this week, while the US market will have shortened trading sessions due to Americans preparing for the Thanksgiving holiday. On Wednesday, the US PCE price index will be released, a key indicator of price increases supporting the US economy. The US Institute of Statistics (UIS) will also release quarterly updates on GDP growth. The core core PCE price index for October is expected to accelerate again, projected to rise from the previous value of 2.7% to 2.8%. The US GDP growth rate for the third quarter is expected to remain steady at 2.8%.

The daily chart shows that at the beginning of this week, GBP/USD fell back below the 1.2600 mark, plunging to near the 1.2507 (Tuesday's low) after a significant decline from just below the November high of 1.3050. Over the weekend, GBP/USD touched a six-month low of 1.2487, having fallen 7% from the September high of 1.3434. In the short term, pound bulls hoping to end the current dollar rally will seek an intraday rise close to the psychological market level of 1.26 and near 1.2613 (Monday's high). A break above could target the 14-day moving average at 1.2694. On the bearish side, traders will look for opportunities to re-dominate the market and push the pound down to the round number level of 1.2500 and last week's low of 1.2487.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the pound around 1.2550, with a stop loss at 1.2540 and targets at 1.2600, 1.2610.

USDJPY

During Tuesday's North American trading session, USD/JPY fell to around 153.00. The dollar plummeted after surrendering all of its intraday gains and turning negative following a strong open. The Dollar Index, which tracks the value of the dollar against six major currencies, opened strong around 107.50 but fell to around 106.50. On Tuesday in the Asian market, the yen rose against the dollar, but lacked bullish momentum, maintaining a range-bound state from the past week. Risk sentiment slightly worsened, reflected in weaker stock markets, which boosted the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan remains unclear, which may prevent the yen from strengthening significantly. Meanwhile, the nomination of Scott Bessent as the U.S. Treasury Secretary provided a brief respite for U.S. bond investors, as the market anticipates a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. In fact, market participants now seem to believe that the expansionary policies introduced by President-elect Donald Trump will reignite inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate cuts. This, in turn, could trigger a new round of rises in U.S. bond yields, helping the dollar fill the weekly bearish gap and should suppress the low-yielding yen.

The 4-hour chart shows USD/JPY consolidating near the 100-hour simple moving average {104.14}. Moreover, oscillators on the daily and hourly charts are mixed, and for caution, one should wait for some follow-through selling below last week's oscillation lows, around 153.30-153.25, before setting a stop-loss. Then, USD/JPY could further break below the significant 153.00 mark, approaching the next relevant support at 152.69 {200-hour moving average}, and then the very crucial 152.00 {psychological market barrier}. On the other hand, the 154.75-154.80 area now appears to be a strong resistance. If USD/JPY continuously breaks through the 155.00 psychological barrier, it could rise to the 155.40-155.50 resistance area. Before USD/JPY retests the multi-month high of 156.75 reached on November 15, it might continue to strengthen, reclaiming the 156.00 mark.

Today, it is advised to short the dollar around 153.30, with a stop loss at 153.50 and targets at 152.50 and 152.30.

EURUSD

On Tuesday, EUR/USD resumed its general decline, quickly setting aside Monday's bullish price action, and returning to the area below the 1.0500 support level ahead of key U.S. data releases on Wednesday. EUR/USD recovered lost ground during the European session on Tuesday, rebounding to the 1.0500 psychological resistance level. The major currency pair rebounded after opening weakly, as the dollar relinquished most of its intraday gains. The Dollar Index, which measures the value of the dollar against six major currencies, opened strong, rising to around 107.50 during the Asian session, but most of its gains were erased during the European session, falling to just below 107.00. Newly elected President Trump’s threats to raise tariffs on other North American economies, anticipating that China was dumping prohibited drugs into the U.S. from these economies, again stoked concerns, boosting the dollar's appeal during the Asian session on Tuesday. The dollar resumed the correction trend that started after Trump's nomination of the experienced hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary on Monday. The dollar fell sharply as investors anticipated Bessent would execute the economic agenda through maintaining fiscal discipline and political stability.

During the European session on Tuesday, EUR/USD regained strength and rebounded near 1.0500. The currency pair continued to hold above recent lows around 1.0332. However, the outlook remains bearish, as all short to long-term exponential moving averages in the daily chart are declining, indicating a downward trend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounded briefly after conditions turned oversold. However, this oscillating indicator has cooled down, which could allow bears to regain control. EUR/USD gained buying interest at the start of the week due to dollar weakness, retesting the 1.0500 level but retreated to around 1.0480. The euro's strength still failed to decisively break through the key 1.0500 (round number) and 1.0530 (early week high) support areas, increasing the likelihood of further weakness in the short term. EUR/USD has recently been maintaining around the familiar technical resistance of 1.0500. It found a bit of breathing space before touching a 24-month low of 1.0425 over the weekend, but for euro bulls to rise, they must reclaim the 1.0500 - 1.0530 resistance area; breaking through could target 1.0570 (14-day moving average) and 1.0610 (high on November 20).

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro around 1.0475, with a stop loss at 1.0460, and targets at 1.0530 and 1.0540.

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