From a technical perspective, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in bearish territory at 36.30, suggesting a continued bearish outlook. Should EUR/USD decline further, it could target the October low of 1.0900, followed by the August 8 low of 1.0881 and the 200-day moving average at 1.0874. On the upside, resistance lies initially at Wednesday’s high of 1.0981, followed by the 9-day moving average at 1.1010. A further rise could encounter resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.1214 to 1.0935 decline at 1.1041, with the 34-day moving average at 1.1080 as a subsequent hurdle.

Today's recommendation is to go long on EUR near 1.0925, with a stop loss at 1.0915 and targets at 1.0980 and 1.0990.

GBP/USD

On Thursday, GBP/USD seemed to lose momentum, encountering some selling pressure and retreating to the 1.3050 area, with a modest intraday decline. While GBP/USD saw some early-week gains, it was unable to reclaim the 1.3100 level. As investors await the release of the Fed’s September policy meeting minutes, the pair has remained relatively quiet in the midweek. The recovery in major Wall Street indices made it difficult for the dollar to strengthen during Tuesday's U.S. session, allowing GBP/USD to maintain a mild daily gain. However, worsening market sentiment, especially following the Shanghai Composite’s nearly 7% drop, has constrained the pair’s upside. After cutting its policy rate by 50 basis points following the September meeting, the Fed’s minutes may offer insights into the extent of potential future rate cuts. If officials indicate no further aggressive easing, the market reaction could temporarily favor the dollar, though any hawkish impact may be short-lived.

Earlier this week, GBP/USD was confined to a narrow range between 1.3050 and 1.3135, with market participants feeling uncertain amid limited catalysts. Despite last week's U.S. jobs report supporting the dollar back to its August 2024 levels, momentum indicators suggest sellers are in control, as reflected by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding a bearish reading of 41.60. In the short term, the pair shows a downward trend, with a breach below the 50-day moving average at 1.3096 potentially signaling further declines. For sellers to extend their influence, the rate must break below the September 11 low at 1.3001, which would expose the 100-day moving average at 1.2941 as a strong support level. Conversely, should GBP/USD reclaim 1.3100 and advance to 1.3176 (40-day moving average) and 1.3200 (psychological level), it could pave the way for additional upside, with the next resistance at the October 3 high of 1.3274.

Today's recommendation is to go long on GBP near 1.3045, with a stop loss at 1.3035 and targets at 1.3100 and 1.3110.

USD/JPY

The uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's rate hike plans has led the yen to fall to a two-month low against the dollar. Profit-taking and repositioning trades have prompted some consolidation around USD/JPY ahead of the upcoming U.S. CPI report. The anticipation of a potential 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November could limit dollar gains and control spot price losses. The yen remained weak amid risk-on sentiment, as safe-haven demand waned while fresh dollar buying pushed USD/JPY to its highest level since mid-August, around the 149.59 area.

On Thursday, Japan’s PPI data was higher than expected, briefly supporting the yen and preventing further USD/JPY gains. The dovish comments from new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba added pressure on the yen, which pushed USD/JPY higher. The pair rose above the significant 149.00 level for the first time since mid-August, supported by climbing U.S. Treasury yields, which often correlate positively with USD/JPY movements.

Technically, USD/JPY is showing a neutral-to-bullish stance after breaking above key resistance at the 50-day moving average of 145.10. The 14-day RSI at 64.70 indicates that buyers are in control but that the pair is not yet overbought, suggesting room for further gains. If the pair surpasses the August 15 high of 149.39, it may test the psychological barrier of 150.00. A sustained rally could target the 200-day moving average at 151.18.

For a bearish view, sellers will need to bring USD/JPY down below the 70-day moving average at 148.32. A breach there could open the path to the October 8 low of 147.35, followed by support at the 146.00-145.90 area, with a deeper target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 145.65.

Today's recommendation is to short USD around 148.80, with a stop loss at 149.00, targeting 147.80 and 147.70.

XAU/USD

Gold prices have rebounded significantly after approaching the $2,600 mark, now trading around $2,630. Following U.S. data releases that caused a brief surge in the dollar, gold seems to have stabilized, ending a six-day losing streak and bouncing from the three-week low it touched earlier. The market sees an 82% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November, with the Fed’s recent meeting minutes leaning dovish but not shifting expectations drastically. While the likelihood of aggressive easing has diminished, gold's upside remains limited without stronger buying pressure to confirm the end of its correction from historic highs.

From a technical perspective, despite gold closing below the critical 21-day moving average support ($2,619), buyers have defended their positions. The 14-day RSI remains above 50, currently at 53.95, suggesting that bullish sentiment persists. Immediate support stands at the $2,600 psychological level, and a break below could lead to further declines toward the September 20 low of $2,585 and the 34-day moving average near $2,579.20.

Conversely, if the bullish momentum holds, gold may target the $2,650 psychological level and encounter resistance around $2,657-$2,658. A sustained rally could see bulls challenge the September highs around $2,685-$2,686, with the $2,700 level as a subsequent objective.

Today's recommendation is to go long on gold around $2,625, with a stop loss at $2,622 and targets at $2,645 and $2,648.

XTI/USD

Oil prices are stabilizing after a two-day pullback, with a rebound of over 2% on Thursday as they found some support. Following President Joe Biden's call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, traders remain uncertain, as the call ended without clear comments. Despite recent declines due to rising U.S. crude inventories, concerns over potential supply disruptions from Iran due to Middle Eastern conflicts, along with Hurricane Milton impacting U.S. fuel supply, are limiting losses. Florida is already experiencing gasoline shortages due to increased demand from the storm, which has supported crude prices. Market tensions over Israel's potential strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure remain high, even after news of a possible truce between Hezbollah and Israel caused a significant dip in oil prices earlier this week.

Technically, oil prices retreated after hitting the 200-day simple moving average at $77.15, and indicators such as the 14-day RSI and stochastic have turned lower, suggesting a possible slowing of the recent upward momentum. Support is estimated at the 14-day simple moving average of $71.48 and the $71.20 mark (Wednesday's low), with the next key level at the psychological support of $70.00. For a short-term upside continuation, oil needs to break back above $74.82 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement from $64.75 to $77.93) and the 100-day simple moving average at $75.62, which could pave the way for a test of the 200-day average at $77.15.

Today's recommendation is to go long on crude around $74.80, with a stop loss at $74.60 and targets at $76.00 and $76.30.

Disclaimer:

The information contained herein (1) is proprietary to BCR and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely; and, (4) does not constitute advice or a recommendation by BCR or its content providers in respect of the investment in financial instruments. Neither BCR or its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.