Last week, global markets experienced significant volatility amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and mixed US non-farm payroll data. The US military confirmed attacks on two Iranian oil tankers, while Iran again launched missiles at the UAE, further escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US April non-farm payroll data was better than expected, but mixed details prompted markets to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path. Oil prices rebounded, gold fluctuated at high levels, US stocks hit new record highs, the US dollar continued to weaken, and Bitcoin, after a sharp sell-off, climbed back above the $80,000 mark.

Military tensions between the US and Iran escalated further on Friday. Despite the escalation, US President Trump insisted that the ceasefire agreement remained in effect, describing the military action as "just a tap." The market is currently awaiting Iran's formal response to the US ceasefire proposal.

The market focus will now shift to next week's US CPI and PPI inflation data, which could further influence Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and the next phase of risk asset performance.

Last Week's Market Performance Recap:

Before the end of last week, global markets experienced significant volatility due to the interplay of escalating tensions in the Middle East and the release of mixed US non-farm payroll data. The US military confirmed attacks on two Iranian oil tankers, while Iran again launched missiles at the UAE, further escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US April non-farm payroll data was better than expected, but mixed details prompted the market to reassess the Federal Reserve's policy path.

US stocks hit new record highs. The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.4%, both hitting intraday record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by about 54 points.

Last week, gold's price action unfolded in three acts: At the beginning of the week, safe-haven buying was overwhelmed by falling oil-driven inflation and yield risks; subsequently, the Strait of Hormuz headlines did not worsen further, and gold found a solid bottom; in the latter half of the week, driven by hopes of de-escalation, softening yields, and a weaker dollar, gold broke through $4700 again. On Friday, influenced by non-farm payrolls of 115,000, an unemployment rate of 4.3%, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index of 48.2, gold prices consolidated in the $4678-$4750 range, closing near $4715.

Spot silver rose above $80 per ounce on Friday, its highest level since mid-March, laying the foundation for a more than 7% gain this week, as optimism about a potential peace agreement between the US and Iran eased concerns that persistent inflation could prolong high interest rates. Since the start of the war in late February, silver prices have fallen nearly 14%, pressured by rising oil prices, which have exacerbated inflation concerns and complicated the interest rate outlook.

The US dollar remained relatively weak despite strong data, but changes in global capital flows and policy expectations need to be observed. The dollar index fell below 98 on Friday, reaching its lowest level in ten weeks. The dollar index fell 0.40% to 97.86 on Friday, approaching its lowest point since February 27th, and recording its second consecutive weekly decline. The US is attempting to avoid escalation, a signal that has improved market risk appetite. The market is clearly bearish on the dollar, believing that increased risk appetite and risk premiums will push the dollar index down to 95 in the coming months.

The euro rose 0.56% against the dollar to $1.1785, reflecting a trend of funds flowing from safe-haven assets to higher-yielding currencies. It is worth noting that previously, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to surge, prompting investors to flock to the dollar as a safe haven; however, this logic is reversing as hopes for a ceasefire increase. The dollar fell 0.24% against the yen to 156.67 on Friday, after Tokyo allegedly intervened in the foreign exchange market last week with approximately $35 billion, along with verbal warnings, successfully curbing a large sell-off of the yen. Japan's chief monetary diplomat stated that there are no restrictions on the frequency of intervention and that daily contact is maintained with US authorities. However, the intervention measures have had little impact on long-term trends.

Despite the Labour Party's crushing defeat in local elections, Prime Minister Starmer's statement that he would not resign boosted the pound and UK government bonds, a signal of political stability. The pound rose 0.41% to $1.3633. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rose 0.6% to 0.7245, benefiting from a recovery in risk appetite. Previously, market concerns about energy supply disruptions due to the Middle East conflict had prompted investors to sell currencies of oil-import-dependent economies, but as hopes for a ceasefire increased, funds flowed back into higher-risk currencies.

Last week, WTI crude oil prices closed down more than 7% at $91.80, but Brent crude briefly touched above $115 per barrel at the beginning of the week, and WTI crude approached $107.50 per barrel. This intraday surge followed by a pullback, resulting in a weekly decline of over 7%, profoundly reflects the market's extreme entanglement between escalating US-Iran conflict and expectations of ceasefire negotiations.

Last week, Bitcoin retreated from a high of $81,000 that it briefly broke through mid-week, as tensions between the US and Iran escalated again. However, against the backdrop of continued resilience in global risk assets, Bitcoin still recorded gains this week. In Asian trading, Bitcoin was trading at $79,614, down 1.6% in the last 24 hours, but still up 3.3% for the week. Previously, Bitcoin had retreated from a high of $81,500 on Wednesday, its highest level since the end of January.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.35% on Friday, near a two-week low reached earlier last week, as developments in the Middle East continued to dominate investor sentiment. The market continues to expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates largely unchanged for the remainder of the year, while projecting a roughly 40% probability of a rate hike by April 2027.

Market Outlook for This Week:

This week (May 11-15), global markets will see a dense window of data releases, with core inflation, credit, and consumption data from the US, China, and Europe all being released. This is compounded by statements from major central bank officials and three major oil market reports, creating a complex interplay of geopolitical risks and policy variables.

From Chinese credit data to the US's "dreaded data," from CPI figures in multiple countries to energy market supply and demand reports, every piece of data and event can reshape market expectations. Investors need to accurately grasp the core logic and cope with potential volatility.

Regarding this week's risks:

Geopolitical and policy variables require close attention.

In addition to core economic data, investors should be wary of three potential risks:

First, escalating geopolitical events such as the US-Iran conflict and the recurring Russia-Ukraine situation may trigger increased risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar;

Second, speeches by officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that release unexpected policy signals may quickly correct market interest rate pricing, causing volatility in exchange rates and bond markets;

Third, significant fluctuations in energy prices coupled with disruptions to global supply chains may exacerbate inflation stickiness, suppressing the performance of risk assets.

This week's conclusion:

The surge in oil prices at the end of April did not trigger the same risk aversion reaction as at the beginning of the Iran conflict, because the rekindled rebound in artificial intelligence masked concerns about an escalating energy crisis. However, rising inflation expectations warrant attention, as key indicators such as the US 10-year breakeven rate remain above pre-war levels, even though some of the worst concerns have eased.

Investors may be buoyed by the fact that global inflation expectations remain well below their peak levels following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But they are ignoring the worrying fact that the current energy crunch could become the most severe risk in history. Crucially, the latest easing is largely based on hope, not on a concrete agreement between the US and Iran.

Nevertheless, with oil prices falling, investors have reduced some of their bets on rate hikes by major central banks, and the Federal Reserve's expectations have shifted back from rate hikes to rate cuts. Liquidity in the Middle East means that market reactions to upcoming US data, particularly Tuesday's CPI report, will depend on progress in peace talks or whether Trump orders a new round of strikes against Iran.

Operation Freedom of the Sea Triggers Strait Crisis

On May 4, a new round of military confrontation erupted between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz. The US launched Operation Freedom of the Sea to forcibly clear the waterway, while Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on the UAE's Fujairah oil port. Multiple merchant ships were attacked and caught fire, with both sides offering conflicting accounts of the situation, causing international oil prices to surge by over 5%. This conflict broke the four-week ceasefire agreement, and although peace negotiations are ongoing, the military escalation has plunged the Gulf situation into high uncertainty. Conflicting reports from both sides regarding the battlefield situation make it difficult for outsiders to grasp the complete picture of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

The US launches "Operation Freedom": Forcibly clearing a maritime lifeline

The immediate trigger for this military escalation was US President Trump's announcement of a new initiative called "Operation Freedom." According to a statement released by Trump on social media, the operation aims to help oil tankers and other ships stranded due to the war pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran in February, this crucial energy trade route has been almost completely shut down, and the war has already caused thousands of deaths in the region.

It is noteworthy that this operation was launched just two days after the deadline stipulated by US law for the president to obtain congressional authorization to initiate military action. Despite Trump's earlier statement to Congress that the war was "over" and his claim that the deadline was meaningless, this assertion was publicly questioned by several members of Congress.

The initial effects were counterproductive: angering Iran instead of clearing shipping lanes.

Initially, "Operation Freedom of Navigation" failed to deliver the expected surge in merchant shipping traffic. Instead, it quickly angered Iran, prompting it to fulfill its promise of a show of force.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had previously stated explicitly that shipping lanes would only reopen with its permission. In response to the US action, Iran fired warning shots at US warships approaching the Strait and released a map claiming a significant expansion of its controlled waters.

The map showed that Iran's claimed control extended far beyond the Strait of Hormuz itself, even encompassing large sections of the UAE coastline. Major shipping companies subsequently stated that they were highly unlikely to risk sending their vessels through the strait until a clear ceasefire agreement was reached. Meanwhile, marine insurance costs have surged due to the news of the conflict.

Iran Retaliates Violently: Missiles Hit UAE Oil Port

Iran's military response extended beyond the maritime standoff, reaching into neighboring the United Arab Emirates. The Fujairah oil port, located just outside the Strait of Hormuz, became a primary target of the Iranian attack. Due to its strategic location, this port is one of the few routes that can export Middle Eastern oil without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, making it of immense strategic value. Iranian state television confirmed that military officials stated the attack on the UAE was a response to "US adventurism."

The UAE government stated that the Iranian missile and drone attacks marked a serious escalation of the situation and explicitly reserved the right to retaliate. For security reasons, UAE authorities have ordered remote learning for students.

Furthermore, the UAE National Oil Company confirmed that one of its empty oil tankers was attacked by an Iranian drone. British maritime security agencies reported that two vessels were attacked off the coast of the UAE.

Conflicting Reports and Attacks on Merchant Ships: The Real Battle in the Fog

The battle reports released by various parties during the day's conflict were rife with contradictions and uncertainty. The U.S. military stated that two U.S. merchant ships, supported by a Navy guided-missile destroyer, successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz. Global shipping giant Maersk also confirmed that the U.S.-flagged "Allied Fairfax" sailed through the strait on Monday under U.S. military escort.

However, Iran vehemently denied that any ships had passed through the strait in recent hours. Regarding military clashes, Admiral Brad Cooper, the U.S. commander in the region, stated that the U.S. fleet had sunk six small Iranian vessels, but he did not provide specific details, only stating that he "strongly advised" Iranian forces to stay away from U.S. assets on missions. Iran also denied this.

Meanwhile, several merchant ships encountered incidents while navigating. South Korea reported that its merchant ship, the "HMM Namu," experienced an engine room explosion and fire while transiting the strait. Fortunately, there were no casualties, but a spokesperson stated that it was unclear whether the fire was caused by an external attack or an internal malfunction. Affected by reports of escalating Iranian attacks, international oil prices surged by more than 5% in volatile trading.

A Glimmer of Hope for Peace Talks: Diplomatic Attempts Amidst a Military Quagmire

Despite the sharp escalation of military confrontation, diplomatic channels do not appear to be completely closed. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated after the incident that Monday's clashes proved the crisis could not be resolved militarily. He revealed that peace talks were progressing under Pakistan's mediation, while warning the US and the UAE not to be dragged into a "quagmire" by "malicious actors."

He bluntly stated on social media: "'Operation Freedom' is 'Operation Stalemate.'" Four weeks ago, the US and Israel suspended bombing operations against Iran, and officials from both sides held a round of face-to-face peace talks, but subsequent attempts to arrange further meetings have failed. Iranian state media reported on Sunday that the US had conveyed its response to Iran's 14-point proposal through Pakistan, which Iran is currently reviewing.

It is understood that Iran's proposal would postpone discussions on its nuclear energy and research programs until an agreement is reached to end the war and resolve the shipping standoff. Although Trump stated over the weekend that he was still studying the proposal, he is likely to reject it. Latest US intelligence indicates that Iran's nuclear program has suffered limited damage since the outbreak of the war, and the Trump administration's goal is to clear Iran's enriched uranium stockpile to prevent it from being further processed to a level suitable for nuclear weapons.

Conclusion:

On May 4, 2026, the military conflict between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated abruptly. The US-led "Operation Freedom of Navigation," intended to forcibly restore passage through the strait, quickly triggered a military response from Iran, leading to attacks on UAE oil ports, distressing several merchant ships, and a surge of over 5% in international oil prices. The two sides' contrasting accounts of key events make it difficult to verify the full picture. This conflict broke the four-week ceasefire, exposing the limitations of military pressure in resolving the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Although Iran has signaled that peace negotiations are still underway, the US's hardline stance on Iran's nuclear program and the increasing mutual distrust between the two sides leave the diplomatic outlook bleak. The subsequent developments will heavily depend on the next military actions and political decisions of both sides; the security situation in the Strait of Hormuz has entered a highly uncertain phase.

The US dollar index continued to decline amid easing ceasefire tensions, and may it fall below pre-war levels of 97?

The past week has been extremely volatile for the foreign exchange market. The continued easing of tensions in the Gulf region boosted risk appetite significantly, leading to a sharp decline in the US dollar, while most emerging market currencies rose. Subsequently, volatility in the currency markets intensified again.

The US dollar is under pressure, with peace expectations being a major drag.

The dollar index failed to capitalize on the previous day's rebound from a near three-week low driven by strong US jobs data, falling for the second consecutive day under pressure from expectations of a US-Iran peace deal. Specifically, the ADP report showed that US private sector employment increased by 109,000 in April, higher than the previous figure (revised down to 61,000). However, this positive news was offset by market optimism surrounding a potential agreement to end the war with Iran.

US President Trump signaled optimism on Wednesday, saying that negotiations had made progress in the past 24 hours and that Iran wanted an agreement. According to Axios, citing two US officials, the White House is close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the conflict. Meanwhile, market expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain a hawkish stance cooled, further weakening the dollar's reserve currency status and providing support for the euro.

The dollar's safe-haven demand further cooled.

With the nearly month-long ceasefire between Washington and Tehran remaining in place, the dollar weakened against major currencies, further reducing safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually returning to normal, geopolitical risks have subsided, and investors are increasingly shifting towards higher-risk assets.

The euro benefited from improved prospects for European energy supplies, leading to more optimistic market sentiment; the pound sterling continued its classic performance during periods of rising risk appetite, becoming a beneficiary of capital inflows. Both benefited from the waning dollar premium.

The foreign exchange market has shown signs of stabilization, while the simultaneous rise in the stock market further indicates market expectations that the situation will continue to ease. There is growing speculation that President Trump hopes to finalize an agreement with Iran before the meeting between the Chinese and US leaders. Latest news indicates that Iran is considering the US proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while nuclear negotiations have been postponed to a later date. Trump again warned that a new round of military action would not be ruled out if negotiations break down, but his overall tone remained optimistic, suggesting the conflict could end within a week. Currently, WTI oil prices are hovering around $90-100 per barrel, but volatility remains high.

The ceasefire agreement remains fragile.

In the coming week, as long as the foreign exchange market awaits the final outcome of the US-Iran agreement, volatility will remain high. Analysts generally warn that if negotiations fail to make substantial progress, even without an escalation of military conflict, the US dollar is quite likely to rebound to its previous levels. The ceasefire agreement only eliminates most, not all, of the risk of a sharp dollar surge—once the agreement collapses, the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency will quickly return.

Meanwhile, market focus is shifting to the upcoming US inflation data, which will provide clearer guidance for the Fed's policy path. Meanwhile, the policy signals from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may diverge further. The foreign exchange market deserves close monitoring in this context.

Conclusion:

Traders still expect the Fed to raise interest rates before the end of the year. Furthermore, due to the significant differences remaining on the Iranian nuclear issue, investors are reassessing the possibility of a peace agreement between the US and Iran. This uncertainty keeps market sentiment tense and may provide some support for the dollar. Therefore, investors should remain cautious and avoid aggressively betting on long positions before non-dollar currencies rise further.

Gold Prices Rebound? Don't Rush to Buy! Two Hidden Dangers Lie Behind Geopolitical Storms

Gold prices rebounded from a more than one-month low, stimulated by tensions between the US and Iran. However, geopolitical conflicts have pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, strengthened bets on a Fed rate hike, and reinforced the safe-haven status of the US dollar, all of which have suppressed the upside potential of gold prices. This led to a drop to around $4,500 per ounce, the lowest point in more than a month. The technical outlook is also bearish. Overall, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable, and bulls need to remain cautious. In general, the upside potential of gold seems to still be significantly constrained by multiple factors.

Geopolitical Tensions: A New Spark for Inflationary Pressures

Currently, the fragile ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran is facing a severe test. Following serious violence in the Persian Gulf and a significant escalation of the situation, the agreement is on the verge of collapse. Specifically, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea have both reported attacks on ships in key international shipping lanes. The UAE further stated that a fire broke out in the Fujairah oil port area following an Iranian missile and drone attack. In response, US President Donald Trump publicly warned that if Iran attacks US escort vessels deployed under a new initiative called "Project Freedom," Iran would face the severe consequence of being "wiped off the face of the earth."

These latest developments significantly increased the likelihood of further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, triggering a new round of price increases for crude oil on Monday. This phenomenon further confirms the widespread market expectation that war-driven energy price spikes will reignite inflationary pressures and prompt major central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve, to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy stance.

A Strong Dollar and Hawkish Expectations: Two Major Obstacles to Gold

The aforementioned macroeconomic outlook continues to provide upward momentum for US Treasury yields, further supporting the strength of the US dollar. In addition, the direct confrontation between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz is another factor contributing to the consolidation of the US dollar's reserve currency status. This series of dynamics collectively confirms the negative outlook for gold in the short term, meaning any subsequent price attempts are more likely to encounter renewed selling pressure. Therefore, it is prudent to wait for stronger and more sustained follow-through buying signals before confirming that gold prices have truly bottomed out and establishing further upside positions.

Technical Analysis: Bearish Pattern Unresolved

From a technical analysis perspective, gold prices remain bearish in the short term, primarily reflected in the fact that prices continue to trade below the 200-period simple moving average on the four-hour chart (currently at $4655.02 per ounce).

Meanwhile, indicators measuring market momentum remain weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently hovering around 39.84, below the 50 neutral line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MAD) indicator is also currently in negative territory. These technical signals, in turn, suggest that any attempt at an upward rebound is likely to gradually fade under supply pressure above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (i.e., $4595.20 per ounce). If prices continue to attempt to rise, the key short-term resistance level is likely to be between $4,778 (100-day moving average) and $4,780.20 (50-day moving average). Whether this level is broken or not will directly determine whether the short-term bearish trend can continue. Subsequent resistance points to the $4,890-$4,900/oz range, which corresponds to the previous high from April 15th to April 17th and is a significant resistance area for any short-term rebound.

On the downside risks, initial support appears at $4,501.50/oz, near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by the 61.8% retracement level at $4,407.90. If bearish pressure accelerates further, deeper support levels lie at $4,274.50 and then $4,104.60.

Conclusion: Caution is Key; Await Clear Signals

In summary, although gold prices have gained some upward momentum in the short term due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, multiple fundamental factors, including rising inflation expectations, a potential shift towards a more hawkish stance by major central banks, and a continued strengthening of the US dollar, limit the upside potential for gold. The bearish pattern presented by technical charts also does not support blindly chasing the market higher. For market participants, maintaining a cautious wait-and-see approach and awaiting clearer technical and fundamental confirmation signals may be a more prudent strategy at this stage.

US-Iran Talks Signal Easing of Tensions, Oil Prices Plunge, Maintaining Adjustment Structure

International oil prices initially rose but then fell last week. Market expectations of a potential agreement between the US and Iran eased concerns about supply disruptions. However, continued declines in US crude oil inventories and global oil inventories nearing eight-year lows indicate that supply constraints persist, limiting further price declines. With positive signals emerging from the US-Iran talks, investor expectations for a stable global oil supply have significantly strengthened, and risk aversion has cooled somewhat.

The Strait of Hormuz Resumes Normal Shipping

The United States and Iran are advancing a preliminary agreement framework aimed at ending the current conflict and laying the groundwork for broader nuclear negotiations. US President Trump stated that the US had held "very positive talks" with Iran in the past 24 hours, but no deadline has been set for a formal response from Iran.

The market generally believes that if an agreement is reached, it will help restore normal shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil transport. Once shipping risks decrease, pressure on the global energy supply chain will be significantly alleviated, directly weakening the recent risk premium in oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions.

US Crude Oil Inventories Decrease by 2.314 Million Barrels

Meanwhile, the crude oil market supply remains tight. Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that US crude oil inventories decreased by 2.314 million barrels in the week ending May 1st. While this is less than the 6.233 million barrel decrease in the previous week, it marks the fifth consecutive week of decline. The market had previously expected a decrease of approximately 2.8 million barrels.

The continued decline in US crude oil inventories reflects the continued resilience of refinery demand and consumption. Although the inventory drop was slightly less than market expectations, overall inventory levels remain relatively low, providing some support for oil prices.

Furthermore, global oil inventories are currently near their lowest levels in the past eight years. Against the backdrop of limited global supply recovery and uncertainties in some major oil-producing regions, the rapid decline in inventories is becoming a significant supporting factor for international oil prices.

The pace of global oil inventory decline is accelerating, and given the limited supply, low inventories have become a crucial factor influencing oil prices.

Crude oil is currently oscillating between "easing geopolitical risks" and "low global inventories."

From a market sentiment perspective, the crude oil market is currently oscillating between "easing geopolitical risks" and "low global inventories." On the one hand, continued easing of tensions in the Middle East will weaken safe-haven buying and push oil prices down; on the other hand, low global inventories and the upcoming summer peak demand season may still limit the downside potential for oil prices.

From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil maintains its medium-term upward structure on the daily chart. After breaking through the $100 mark, prices surged and are currently consolidating at higher levels.

Conclusion:

The core driving logic of the current international crude oil market has gradually shifted from simple geopolitical speculation to a balance between "supply recovery expectations" and "the reality of low global inventories." In the short term, continued progress in US-Iran negotiations will alleviate market concerns about shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and international oil prices may continue to correct from their highs. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, persistently low global crude oil inventories, coupled with significant uncertainty regarding supply recovery in major oil-producing regions, provide strong support for international oil prices overall. Future market volatility may intensify, and investors should pay close attention to developments in the Middle East, US inventory data, and global demand performance.

Overview of Important Overseas Economic Events and Matters This Week:

Monday (May 11): US April Existing Home Sales (Annualized, in thousands); US April New York Fed 3-Year Inflation Expectations (%); US Treasury Secretary Bessant visits Japan, meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister, Bank of Japan Governor, and Finance Minister.

Tuesday (May 12): Australia's ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending May 10; Eurozone's May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index; US April CPI (Unadjusted, Year-on-Year) (%); Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions from April Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Wednesday (May 13): US May EIA Monthly Report Forecast - Current Year WTI Crude Oil Price (USD/barrel); Eurozone Q1 Seasonally Adjusted GDP Quarterly Rate (Revised) (%); US April PPI (Year-on-Year) (%); US May IPSOS Main Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI).

Thursday (May 14): UK March GDP (Month-on-Month) (%); UK March Industrial Production (Month-on-Month) (%); UK Q1 GDP (Production Method) Annualized Preliminary Rate (%); US Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending May 9 (in thousands); US April Retail Sales (MoM)

Friday (May 15): UK May CBI Industrial Orders Balance; US May New York Fed Manufacturing Index; US April Industrial Production (MoM) (%); US April Manufacturing Production (MoM) (%)

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