US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index rebounded toward 102.30 on Tuesday. Despite headwinds such as rising inflation, US economic data has shown resilience, providing support for the dollar. Five major central banks are set to announce policy decisions later this week; while inflationary pressures persist, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan are all expected to keep interest rates unchanged, whereas the central banks of New Zealand and Canada are anticipated to hike rates. The dollar’s ​​recent strength reflects market bets that the Federal Reserve will continue its tightening cycle. On Wall Street, expectations regarding the Fed’s move this week are not uniform; some institutions have turned cautious—Goldman Sachs, for instance, expects the Fed to hold steady at its October meeting, deferring the next rate hike until December. This market divergence underscores the complexity of the current data relative to expectations: core inflation remains elevated, while financial conditions and real incomes are under significant pressure. Consequently, this week’s policy decision is not merely about interest rate levels; it serves as a critical litmus test for whether the Federal Reserve acknowledges the reality that the bond market has already "done the heavy lifting" for them.

On the 4-hour chart, the US Dollar Index maintains a constructive bullish bias, holding above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at 101.26. Furthermore, the breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 101.92 has reinforced the short-term upward tone, though any broader rally remains constrained by a key anchor level near 102.94, which also acts as initial resistance. On the downside, should the index fall back below the 101.92 level (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement), it may find support within a dense zone formed by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 101.28 and the 200-period SMA at 101.26. A further rebound would bring the upper Bollinger Band at 102.55 and the recent high of 102.94 into focus. Consider shorting the USD today at 102.45, with a stop-loss at 102.55 and targets at 102.00 and 101.95.

AUD/USD

During Tuesday’s Asian trading session, the AUD/USD pair climbed toward 0.7025, supported by hawkish interest rate expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Traders are preparing for Australia’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report—due later on Wednesday—as well as the upcoming interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). At the end of September, the RBA raised interest rates to 4.6%, marking their highest level in 15 years. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter stated that the central bank is "not quite" finished with its fight against inflation, suggesting that policymakers are likely to implement further rate hikes when they meet early next month. "The Board has raised interest rates four times this year to continue addressing this challenge," Hunter stated. "Unfortunately, it is not quite over yet." Hunter added, "I will not preempt how the Board might or might not adjust interest rates." Market attention will shift later today to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Economists expect the U.S. central bank to keep interest rates unchanged, following a hike in September. Nevertheless, market expectations for further rate increases remain elevated, with pricing indicating a high probability of another hike in December.
On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair remains under short-term pressure, as it continues to trade below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of 0.7054, which keeps the overall tone constrained. Meanwhile, the latest Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) reading of 53.37 suggests that momentum is stabilizing rather than showing any clear signs of strengthening. The price is also positioned below the upper Bollinger Band (0.7046) but remains above the middle Bollinger Band (0.7078), indicating that the pair is consolidating within the lower half of its recent trading range. On the upside, initial resistance lies at the 200-day SMA of 0.7054, followed by the 0.7000 psychological level, where selling interest may re-emerge. On the downside, the middle Bollinger Band near 0.6978 provides immediate support, with further support located near the lower Bollinger Band at 0.6912, which marks the bottom of the current trading range.

Consider going long on the AUD at 0.7015 today; stop-loss: 0.7005; targets: 0.7060, 0.7070.

GBP/USD

During Tuesday's Asian session, the GBP/USD pair continued to hover below the 1.3300 level, though it managed to hold above the previous day's swing low. However, the downside appears limited, as traders seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of key "event risks" scheduled for later this week. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer John... Healey is set to unveil his first autumn budget on Wednesday, with expectations that he will prioritize stabilizing the bond market in light of the Prime Minister’s ambitious spending plans. Market participants will be closely monitoring the proposed public expenditure and additional financing strategies to see how these outlays will be funded without triggering a negative reaction in the UK government bond (gilt) market. This, in turn, will play a pivotal role in driving the trajectory of the British pound and could provide some upside momentum for the GBP/USD pair. Investors will also be focused on the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday; there is a growing consensus that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged. Consequently, attention will shift to the accompanying policy statement and the remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh during the post-meeting press conference. In the absence of updated economic projections, these communications will be scrutinized for further clues regarding the future policy path—a factor that will subsequently influence the US dollar and the GBP/USD pair.

The GBP/USD pair remains constrained by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3388, as well as a dense cluster of Fibonacci levels overhead. The spot price is currently trading below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3344, suggesting that the broader rebound—which began from the cycle low of 1.3141—remains vulnerable as it struggles to break through medium-term resistance. Beyond the 100-day SMA at 1.3388, the next relevant resistance level lies near 1.3407 (the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement), followed by further resistance at 1.3470 (the 61.8% level). On the downside, initial support is found at the 1.3300 psychological level, with deeper structural support located near the 1.3267 Fibonacci level; should a sharper pullback toward the 1.3200 mark occur, it is expected to attract stronger buying interest.

Consider going long on GBP at 1.3300 today; stop-loss: 1.3290; Targets: 1.3340; 1.3350

USD/JPY

On Tuesday, USD/JPY maintained an upward bias for the third consecutive session, extending its recovery from the one-month low (near 156.00) reached last week. However, the pair lacks follow-through buying and is currently trading near 157.90—up just over 0.10% for the day—as traders appear cautious ahead of key central bank events. The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday at the conclusion of a two-day meeting; market focus will be on the accompanying rate statement and the post-meeting press conference. Furthermore, the release of preliminary U.S. Q3 GDP data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Thursday will shape market expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy path. This, in turn, will influence the U.S. dollar and provide momentum for USD/JPY ahead of the Bank of Japan’s critical policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the Bank of Japan may delay aggressive interest rate hikes have kept "carry trades" active, continuing to weigh on the Japanese yen. Additionally, geopolitical risk premiums—driven by tensions in the Middle East—continue to support the safe-haven U.S. dollar, bolstering the potential for further gains in USD/JPY.

On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY remains range-bound, staying below the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 157.97. ...and the 158.00 (round number) area. However, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near 157.63 provides initial support and marks the upper boundary of the corrective pullback zone. Below this lies a more significant retracement zone, spanning from the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 156.74 to the 50.0% level at 156.02, with further support found at 155.30 and 154.28. On the upside, a breakout above the upper Bollinger Band at 157.97 and the 158.00 (round number) area would point toward the recent high near 159.07; reclaiming this level would be necessary to alleviate the current bearish bias.

Consider shorting the USD at 158.10 today; stop-loss: 158.25; targets: 157.50, 157.40.

EUR/USD

During early trading on Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair extended its decline toward 1.1130, pressured by risk-averse sentiment. With interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank approaching later this week, the market may turn more cautious as the day progresses. Last month, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%—the first such hike since 2023. However, the U.S. central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at its upcoming October meeting this Wednesday. According to the CME... According to the FedWatch tool, federal funds futures currently price in only a 10% probability of another 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its October policy meeting. Nearly 75% of market participants anticipate at least one more rate hike before the end of the year. Inflation remains the primary concern for the U.S. economy, with numerous signs indicating that it is becoming more broad-based. For consumers, this means that borrowing costs will likely remain very high for the foreseeable future.

On the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a short-term bearish bias, with the spot price remaining below both the 34-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1318 and the middle Bollinger Band at 1.1216. The price is currently hovering just above the lower Bollinger Band support at 1.1138, suggesting an attempt to stabilize in the short term. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 34.25—nearing the bearish zone—indicating that despite a modest rebound from recent lows, downward pressure remains dominant. On the upside, initial resistance is found at the middle Bollinger Band (1.1216), followed by the 34-day SMA (1.1318). Should the rebound extend further, the 34-day SMA at 1.1420 would serve as a more significant structural ceiling. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at 1.1122 provides immediate support; a decisive break below this level would pave the way for a continuation of the broader downtrend toward the 1.1100 mark.

For today, consider going long on the EUR at 1.1120; stop-loss: 1.1110; targets: 1.1160, 1.1170.

WTI Spot Crude Oil
On Tuesday, crude oil prices fell toward the $100-per-barrel mark, marking a decline for the second consecutive session. A new round of diplomatic efforts in the Middle East has bolstered hopes that a further escalation of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran might be averted. According to reports, senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey met with high-ranking Iranian officials on Monday, aiming to de-escalate tensions, restart negotiations, and prevent a potential new wave of strikes against Iran by the U.S. and Israel. These talks come about a week before the U.S. midterm elections. President Donald Trump has repeatedly hinted that the U.S. could resume military strikes against Iran, following months of stalled negotiations. Meanwhile, Saudi-led forces remain engaged in conflict with the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels; additionally, it is reported that Hezbollah—bolstered by financial support from Iran—is preparing for a potential new regional conflict in Lebanon. Although crude oil flows have recovered to near pre-war levels, these persistent tensions continue to pose risks to oil supplies from the Middle East.
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil has retreated for the second consecutive day. The price is currently hovering near a cluster of key moving averages and has retested the $100 mark. In the short term, the bias leans neutral-to-bearish, though momentum has yet to strengthen significantly. The RSI (14) has retreated from the previous session's highs to around 60—a neutral zone, well clear of both overbought and oversold extremes—indicating a moderate easing of upward momentum. However, there remains room for further oscillation before the indicator becomes overextended; this represents a classic "consolidation within strength" pattern, awaiting further confirmation. On the upside, resistance levels to watch include $101.50 (the previous session's low, now acting as resistance), $102.50, and the $103.80 mark. A decisive daily close above $102.50 is required to confirm the end of this consolidation phase and pave the way for a move toward higher levels. On the downside, initial support lies at the $99.50 level (a previous consolidation area), followed by $99.00 and $98.50. The $100.00 level serves as a critical psychological defense; a firm break below this could open the door for a decline toward $97.20.

For today, consider going long on crude oil at $99.40, with a stop-loss at $99.25 and a target of $101.00. 102.00

Spot Gold

On Tuesday, the price of gold fell to approximately $4,050 per ounce, erasing gains from the previous trading session. The precious metal faced downward pressure as the U.S. dollar strengthened ahead of key policy decisions from major central banks this week. A resurgence in the "AI trading frenzy"—spurred by initial public offering (IPO) filings from artificial intelligence companies—has also bolstered the dollar, reflecting the sector's contribution to U.S. economic growth. Meanwhile, oil prices declined for the second consecutive day amid diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. Nevertheless, oil prices remain elevated, keeping inflation concerns in focus and reinforcing market expectations that monetary policy will continue to tighten. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week; investors are closely monitoring guidance from policymakers for any signals regarding a potential rate hike in December. Market participants will also scrutinize upcoming U.S. GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data to better gauge the economic outlook and the future trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s policy.

On the daily chart, the price of gold has staged a rebound from near a previous low and is currently trading near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands... The price is hovering near $4,003, attempting to stabilize within a short-term support zone. However, the overall price structure remains below the short- and medium-term moving averages. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands—at $4,003—along with the cluster of moving averages above, acts as resistance, suggesting that the current rebound is more of a "correction following an oversold condition" rather than a definitive trend reversal. Regarding technical indicators, the MACD green bars are narrowing, hinting at a potential recovery in short-term momentum, though no clear "golden cross" or trend-turning signal has emerged yet. The RSI has ticked up from a low level, indicating an easing of bearish pressure, yet it has not reached the "strong" territory. Consequently, the current rebound largely reflects buying interest at lower levels and is insufficient to confirm the end of the downtrend. Upside resistance lies near the 9-day moving average at $4,087, as well as the $4,100 psychological level. If the price fails to break through this area on significant volume, the rebound will likely be limited, leaving the door open for a retest of the lows. On the downside, support is found near the recent lows of $3,975–$3,950. If the price holds this range, a period of consolidation at these lower levels may persist; conversely, a decisive break below this support could trigger further declines, with targets at $3,900 or even lower.

For today, consider going long on gold at $4,055, with a stop-loss at $4,050 and targets at $4,090 and $4,095.