US Dollar Index

The US dollar index fell to a near one-week low of just below 98.60 on Monday, erasing last week's gains as investor sentiment turned negative amid renewed trade tensions. The decline came after President Trump announced that the United States would increase tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% from June 4. Tensions with China also escalated after Beijing rejected Trump's claims that China violated the trade agreement reached in Geneva last month, raising investor doubts about the possibility of a recent call between the two leaders. However, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said over the weekend that a conversation between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could take place as early as this week. Market participants will now turn their attention to a slew of upcoming U.S. economic data, including Friday's much-anticipated monthly jobs report, which could shed further light on the impact of the shift in trade policy on the economy.

The dollar index is expected to maintain its negative bias above its 10-day and 14-day simple moving averages of 99.48 and 99.86. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator of the daily chart is still close to the 39 level, which has shifted the focus to the bearish trend. If the bears continue to dominate the market, the US dollar index may retest 98.32 {low on April 1, 2022}. After breaking through, it will further look to 88.02 {low on April 22}, and 98.00 {round mark}, and will eventually challenge the previous low of 97.91 on April 21, 2025. If the US dollar index breaks through the 99.00 {round mark}, 99.42 {9-day simple moving average}, and 99.86 {14-day simple moving average} resistance area again, the market will open the door to the 100.0 {market psychological mark} area level.

Consider shorting the US dollar index around 98.80 today, stop loss: 98.90, target: 98.32, 98.20

WTI spot crude oil

In terms of oil prices, buy the rumor, sell the news. Despite the announcement of production increases by OPEC+ members, Trump's new threats of US tariffs, and new trade tensions between the United States and China, the US benchmark WTI oil price rose more than 3.0% today. OPEC+ crude oil producers confirmed investors' concerns after a meeting on Saturday and increased production cuts by 411,000 barrels per day for the third time in a row. Investors welcomed the widely expected decision because some member countries proposed a substantial increase in production according to reports from market sources. Trump's threats to increase aluminum and steel import tariffs and the new rift with China failed to weaken the rebound in crude oil. A series of positive fundamental data and lower-than-expected US crude oil supply in recent days, coupled with expectations of increased demand in the summer, seem to have calmed concerns about a global crude oil glut. At least for now.

In the short term, the US oil price may remain in the range of 60 (market psychological barrier) - 64.04 (high point on May 21); but if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine worsens or the internal rifts of OPEC+ deepen, the possibility of a new round of sharp rise and fall cannot be ruled out. Based on its strong momentum, this trend may continue to the level of 57.47 (low point on May 8). If the WTI crude oil price breaks through 62.10 (high point on Monday), it may rise further to the range of 62.97 (55-day simple moving average) and 63.00 (round mark). Further to the 64.00 USD level, at this stage, the psychological barrier of 60.00 USD is the first support level. Once it falls below, it may test the previous low of 58.83 USD {23.6% Fibonacci rebound level from 71.98 to 54.78}. If OPEC+ significantly increases production and US inventories continue to accumulate, oil prices may weaken further. The next level is around 57.47 USD {May 8 low}.

Today, you can consider going long on crude oil around 62.50, stop loss: 62.30; target: 63.50; 64.00

Spot gold

Against the backdrop of increasing global geopolitical tensions and the reunion of the trade war, gold has once again become a "safe haven" in the eyes of investors. On Monday, during the European trading session, gold prices rose strongly by more than 2.70% to $3,380, hitting a four-day high. What unknown market undercurrents are hidden behind this risk aversion frenzy? Spot gold prices have been rising all the way. This strong performance not only recovered some of the losses last week, but also hit the highest level in nearly four trading days. This wave of rising prices is mainly driven by two major risk factors: the sharp escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the trade war concerns caused by the possible imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs by the United States. With trade and geopolitical concerns once again becoming the focus of the market, gold's strong performance at the beginning of this week is not surprising. In the current environment, investors are more inclined to allocate funds to traditional safe-haven assets to hedge potential market risks. In addition to safe-haven demand, the weakening of the US dollar index also provided additional support for gold's rise. The US dollar index once fell to 98.67, also hitting a new low in nearly four trading days.

From a technical perspective, the breakout of the $3,325 resistance zone (upper line of the equilateral triangle) could be seen as a new trigger for gold/dollar bulls, suggesting that the consolidation phase may be over. Meanwhile, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart continues to fluctuate in the positive zone around 56, reflecting the strengthening of gold's upward directional momentum. A pivot area seems to have formed in the 3,325 {upper line of the equilateral triangle}-3,320 {7-day moving average} level. Technical sellers may show interest if gold breaks below this area and starts using it as resistance. In this case, $3,300 {market psychological level} acts as a key support level. On the other hand, $3,400 {round number} may continue to act as an immediate barrier to $3,415 {May 8 high} and trigger a new short-term covering, which will allow gold to recapture the $3,450.00 {round number} level.

Today, consider going long on gold before 3,375, stop loss: 3,370; target: 3,395; 3,400

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar was stronger on Monday. Risk sentiment did not weigh on the Australian dollar today, instead it rose to near 0.6500 levels supported by a weak US dollar. The US dollar started the day weak, affected by multiple events. Trump's vow to raise import tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, threatening economic growth and potentially fueling inflation, reignited investor concerns about stagflation. On Friday, Trump announced plans to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4. The announcement, along with escalating US-China trade tensions, deepened investor concerns about slowing growth and rising inflationary pressures. In Australia, data showed that manufacturing weakened for the second consecutive month in May, falling to its lowest level since February, a sign of slowing industrial activity. In addition, retail sales unexpectedly fell in April, highlighting cautious growth among consumers. The data reinforced market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to implement monetary policy easing.

AUD/USD traded around 0.6490 on Monday, showing a strengthened bullish bias. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair is gradually rising within an ascending channel pattern. Short-term price momentum strengthened as the pair broke above the 14-day simple moving average of 0.64410. Moreover, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) rose above 58, indicating a sustained bullish bias. AUD/USD may target 0.6500 {market psychological barrier}, a breakout of this key resistance range may strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair to explore near 0.6537 which is a seven-month high set on May 26, the next level points to the round number barrier of 0.6600. On the downside, immediate support appears at 0.6442 {14-day simple moving average}, If it breaks, it will look towards 0.6400 {integer mark}, and the 40-day simple moving average of 0.6391 is the first target. Breaking through this key support range may weaken the bullish bias and cause AUD/USD to test the 50-day simple moving average of 0.6360.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the Australian dollar before 0.6480, stop loss: 0.6470, target: 0.6530, 0.6540

GBP/USD

The British pound rose to $1.3559, close to a three-year high since May 26, supported by rising US-China trade tensions and new US tariffs on metals. President Trump announced plans to double steel and aluminum tariffs, while China accused the US of violating a recent trade deal and vowed to respond. Optimism about the UK economy also boosted the pound. The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the UK to 1.2% from 1.1% for 2025, but warned Chancellor Rachel Reeves to maintain fiscal discipline ahead of the June 11 spending review. Inflation remains a concern, with grocery prices rising 4.1% in May, the highest since February 2024, according to Kantar data. As a result, the market now expects the Bank of England to only cut interest rates by about 40 basis points before the end of the year.

The daily chart shows that GBP/USD extended its decline from the recent high of 1.3593 to the recent low of 1.3415 last week and is currently, The pair should find decent support in the 1.3415 {last week's low}, and 1.3400 {round-number mark} areas in the short term. GBP/USD needs to defend the previous three-year high of 1.3445, now turned support, to resume the upward trajectory towards 1.3593 {May 26 high}, and the February 2022 high of 1.3643. Before that, buyers need to break through 1.3544 {May 23 high}, and Monday's high to buy the 1.3559 area mark on a sustained basis. Further strengthening the bullish potential, the 100-day closed above the 200-day simple moving average on Thursday, validating a bullish crossover. Therefore, despite the possibility of a downside for the pair, the short-term technical outlook remains positive as the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) remains firmly above the mid-line, currently close to the 62 level.

Today's recommendation to go long GBP before 1.3530 , stop loss: 1.3520, target: 1.3580, 1.3590

USD/JPY

The yen strengthened against the dollar for the third consecutive day on Monday to around 142.55 and seems to be on track for further appreciation on the back of a combination of supporting factors. Tokyo's consumer price index released on Friday showed that core inflation accelerated more than expected in May, reaffirming market bets that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. In addition, ongoing trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks have become key factors supporting the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, comments from Japan's chief trade negotiator Yoshio Akazawa hinted at progress in trade talks with the United States and sparked hopes of a deal within this month, which provided further support to the yen. On the other hand On the other hand, the US dollar attracted new sellers on the backdrop of widespread acceptance that the Federal Reserve will further reduce borrowing costs amid signs of slowing inflation. This further favors the low-yielding Japanese yen.

USD/JPY bears benefited from resistance near the 146.16 {61.8% Fibonacci rebound from 148.65 to 142.11} of the recent decline from the monthly high of 148.65 to 152.11 last week. This, coupled with the negative oscillator on the daily chart, suggests that the resistance path for the spot price remains downward, supporting the prospect of deeper declines. Therefore, further downside towards the 143.00 mark, heading for the next relevant support level in the 142.40 area, the pair may eventually fall to 142.10, the monthly low hit last Tuesday, and 142.00{round mark}. A breakout points to 141.51{April 23 low}. On the other hand, the current 143.70{9-day moving average} may now act as an immediate strong resistance. Following closely is the resistance area of ​​144.62{38.2% Fibonacci rebound level}, if it breaks through this area, USD/JPY may recapture the psychological mark of 145.00.

Today, it is recommended to short the US dollar before 142.92, stop loss: 143.15; target: 142.00, 141.80

EUR/USD

EUR/USD recovered recent losses from the previous session during Monday's European session, trading around 1.1440. The dollar came under pressure as a U.S. court ruled last Thursday to allow U.S. President Trump's tariffs to take effect. Last Friday, Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania that he plans to double import tariffs on steel and aluminum to put pressure on global steel producers and escalate the trade war. The tariff on steel will be increased from 25% to 50%. On Saturday, the European Commission warned that Europe is ready to fight back against Trump's plan to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, escalating the trade fight between the two largest economies. Claes Notte, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said the current inflation outlook in Europe is unclear, challenging the central bank to take direct action. ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de ·Galhou pointed out that "the normalization of the eurozone policy may not be complete yet."

From the recent trend, the euro/dollar still maintains an upward bias and breaks through the 1.1400 {market psychological barrier} level. The bull market seems to have maintained some momentum, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator of the daily chart shows that buyers are dominant {latest at 60.80} and gradually moving higher, ready to reach a high level above the 62-65 level. This could have pushed the price to challenge the high of April 4, close to 1.1475. A breakout would point to 1.1574 (April 18 high). On the other hand, if the euro/dollar closes below 1.1348 during the day, the currency pair may drift towards the 1.1300 round number. In the case of further weakness, the next support will be the 45-day simple moving average of 1.1241, followed by the 1.1200 {round number} level.

Today's recommendation is Long EUR before 1.1428, stop loss: 1.1415, target: 1.1480, 1.1490

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